Darren Kaplan manages to hit

by Nathan Hamm on 9/6/2003

Darren Kaplan
manages to hit on themes of a few of my last posts. He’s right, the
Taliban resurgence is likely to be short lived. If they want to set up
shop in Zabul, they need fixed defenses. Their strength is in guerilla
attacks, they can’t face Coalition forces in a conventional battle and
their drubbing at Dai Chupan proves that. This is also a good

The Taliban had all the makings of a deadly guerilla
force: battle-hardened and inspired fighters, refuge in Pakistan, ready
access to weapons and supplies and a sympathetic civilian population in
at least a portion of the country. Fortunately for the Coalition, the
Taliban have proven over and over again that they are unable to adopt a
proper guerilla strategy. The short-term Taliban goal of re-occupying
some section of Afghanistan should be their long-term goal after they
have gained sufficient strength and lulled the Coalition into
withdrawing its forces. But the Taliban are impatient to reestablish
their theocratic rule over some portion of Afghanistan (perhaps because
they believe that God commands them to do so) and this has proven to be
their undoing.

Also, their refuge in Pakistan may be shrinking, due to operations in Pakistan.

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– author of 2991 posts on 17_PersonNotFound.

Nathan is the founder and Principal Analyst for Registan, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. More information on Registan's services can be found here, and Nathan can be contacted via Twitter or email.

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