Reasons for Pessimism

by Nathan Hamm on 7/13/2004 · 1 comment


The US geopolitical position in Tajikistan has gone from bad to worse in recent weeks. Russia appears to have succeeded in achieving a long-held goal of establishing a permanent military base in Tajikistan, while China has bolstered its strategic presence with the opening of a Khorog-Kashgar road link. At the same time, there are signs that Tajik skepticism over strategic cooperation with the United States is growing.


In another sign of Kyrgyzstan’s apparent shift away from the West, the country’s security forces have accused foreign civil rights advocates of helping the radical Islamic group Hizb-ut-Tahrir.

At a government meeting on 28 June, National Security Service, NSS, spokesman Tokon Mamitov said the banned group was exploiting the undue attention it was paid by groups like the United States-based Freedom House.

As a result, Mamitov said, Hizb-ut-Tahrir had changed its tactics, which now “take the form of complaints of mistreatment by security service officers, which are then sent on to the media and international human rights organisations. These groups then present Hizb ut-Tahrir activists as victims persecuted by the authorities for their religious beliefs, and put pressure on law enforcement officers, thus obstructing attempts to curtail Hizb ut-Tahrir’s activities.”

Uzbekistan: See my earlier post, which is cause for pessimism for the whole region.

On the other hand, there’s some good news from Afghanistan.

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– author of 2991 posts on 17_PersonNotFound.

Nathan is the founder and Principal Analyst for Registan, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. More information on Registan's services can be found here, and Nathan can be contacted via Twitter or email.

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{ 1 comment }

haroon July 13, 2004 at 11:15 pm

Interesting to note that, if I remember right, there is an Indian military base in Tajikistan, too. Talk about a country that could quite easily become torn between several major powers: And two of those powers are up and coming global players.

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