Ukraine Updates

by Nathan Hamm on 11/26/2004 · 7 comments

The Command Post is all over things (and I realize that I’m an ass for not posting over there–I really haven’t much lately).

If you’re a regular reader, you’ll hear me say fairly often that having anything to do with the Russian energy industry is horrible for a country’s security. If Russian industry was depoliticized, this might not be the case. But, as it stands, the way that Russia’s energy companies do business is a source of immense Russian power throughout the former Soviet Union. So remember, no matter what happens in Ukraine, either side still has to deal with being a cog in Russia’s energy empire–a cog it cannot afford to stop being.

Yanukovich is warning of a coup, and Yushchenko supporters have surrounded government buildings.

Ukraine’s state television has defected.

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have recognized and congratulated Yanukovich. As Andy points out, only CIS states have recognized Yanukovich.

Also from Andy is an excellent piece that you could read two posts from Post-Modern Clog. Tulip Girl also has lots of good stuff, including a contribution from a Ukrainian friend.

Viktor and friends continue to update at The Periscope. At AFOE, Nick looks at Viktor’s posts and notes some potentially disturbing developments.


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This post was written by...

– author of 2991 posts on 17_PersonNotFound.

Nathan is the founder and Principal Analyst for Registan, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. More information on Registan's services can be found here, and Nathan can be contacted via Twitter or email.

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{ 6 comments }

Alexei November 26, 2004 at 2:14 pm

Don’t forget that Ukraine (and Belarus) can very easily become a clog rather than a cog in the Russian energy machine. Pipelines! It’s a two-way street, really.

BTW, they say Yulia Timoshenko made millions stealing Russian gas.

TulipGirl November 26, 2004 at 4:08 pm

Yulia is passionate, beautiful, and a great political ally. But, she also knows how to work the system. . .

kb November 26, 2004 at 5:57 pm

Would you rather she made it or Kuchma? 😉

She’s had a helluva career. And since she knows where the bodies are buried, who better to deal with the Russians over energy?

Alexei November 27, 2004 at 7:41 am

Assuming that Ukraine doesn’t differ much from Russia in the heyday of oligarchs, I wouldn’t be surprised if the movement against corruption were headed by some of the most corrupt people in the country.

TulipGirl November 27, 2004 at 11:30 am

From his track record, I truly believe Yushchenko is a real reformer. I also recognize the realities of living here, and corruption isn’t simply a “those in power” thing, but filters down to the lowest levels. There is often minor corruption involved just riding the marshrutkas around town. Bribery is neccessary just to get through University, even for excellent students. I’m not so naive to think Yushchenko and Our Ukraine isn’t tainted by corruption–but I do believe that they really want to reform the system, and will actually make great strides to do so.

Alexei November 27, 2004 at 12:41 pm

If corruption is a way of life, all the Yuschenkos in the world won’t do away with it. Especially without the support of those areas where most of Ukrainian wealth is created, and that’s the East.

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