How Russia Might Act

by Laurence on 3/22/2005

From SiberianLight:

So, what form would a peacekeeping mission take? Well, if Akayev were to invite peacekeepers into Kyrgyzstan, he would turn to Russia first. Russia strongly backs his rule, and he could be fairly confident that Russian peacekeepers would continue to back him over any opposition groups. Russia wouldn’t be able to just go in by itself, of course. Although this would be the Kremlin’s preferred solution it would also invite howls of protest from the international community, not to mention inflame the Kyrgyz opposition still further.

Russia’s President Putin would have to cover any peacekeeping mission in at least a veil of legitimacy, which means going in under the aegis of an international body. Three candidates spring immediately to mind, each with major drawbacks: the Commonwealth of Independent States, the United Nations, and the little known Shanghai Co-operation Organisation.

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