Line on Bakiev

by Nathan Hamm on 4/11/2006 · 4 comments

I cannot help but get the sense from recent reports on Kyrgyzstan that the little leaks in the dam holding back the floodwaters of social unrest are about to start turning into a torrent. To steal a couple lines from David in his comments, revolution may start to look like an annual event in Kyrgyzstan and Moscow may soon rightly have enough of such residents to have its own “former Kyrgyz presidents’ district.”

Just to recap the past couple weeks:

And I’m probably missing some things.

I have to wonder what the bookies in Vegas Kapchagai (well, Almaty for the time being I suppose) have as the line on Bakiev lasting through the summer.

BTW, if you read Russian, be sure to check out Edil Baisalov’s blog.

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– author of 2991 posts on 17_PersonNotFound.

Nathan is the founder and Principal Analyst for Registan, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. More information on Registan's services can be found here, and Nathan can be contacted via Twitter or email.

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Amira April 12, 2006 at 5:38 am

There is plenty of dissatisfaction with Bakiev, but I’d be very surprised to see a revolution like last March’s. I get the definite sense that since the revolution didn’t really change anything politically and since the economy is even worse off as a result, that a revoution isn’t in almost anyone’s interest.

I do expect to see more pressure put on Bakiev to make some changes. There are many things he could do that probably wouldn’t endager his position.

I give him at least a year, if not longer, if he continues on as he has been.

David April 12, 2006 at 2:29 pm

Today there was some kind of an assassination attempt on Edil Baisalov, who has been behind the protests against Ryspek. This raises the temperature a few degrees more…

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