The following is a guest post from Myles Smith, who currently works in Kyrgyzstan and has worked in the past throughout Central Asia. — Nathan
Though it had been a few days since anything bad had happened in Kyrgyzstan, no one was expecting a trend.
According to reports from AkiPress, 24.kg, Kloop.kg, and other local sources, counter-revolutionary forces took the regional administration building in Osh and Batken yesterday, and may have kidnapped the governor of Jalal-Abad Province.
On Thursday evening, Otunbayeva named Defense Minister Isakov the PG Special Representative for the Southern Region. Seems that he is basically in charge of everything, which might be a welcome change from no one being in charge of anything. This may explain the rumor that circulated the city this evening that the Provisional Government (PG) had been overthrown by the military (ostensibly because Putin was tired of waiting for the ‘pro-Russian’ revolution to start paying pro-Russian dividends).
In Bishkek, competing demonstrations through the last few days have called for the reinstatement of the popular Mayor of Bishkek Tyuleev, others called for the distribution of land rights, still others protested the proposed removal of the word ‘secular’ from the description of the nation in the draft Constitution.
All told, the numbers involved appear to be small. No more than 3000 were demonstrating on the Old Square and Ala-Too square at any point in the last two days, inclusive of all positions.
The overtly counter-revolutionary forces were still smaller. In Osh, it seems a group of 500 supporters of the former governor were enough to force the PG-appointed governor to negotiate, while in Batken, no more than 150 were involved in retaking the regional capital.
If the PG can’t muster the force necessary to hold their regional capitals against a few hundred men, it is hard to see what hope the government has to make it to September. Its already gotten to the point where the stated PG endgame: a new constitution, referendum, elections, and a democratic parliamentary government by Fall; is considered likely by approximately no one.
UPDATE: By midnight on Thursday, the same sources were reporting that these points were retaken by PG forces. PG Minister of Finance – yes, finance – Temir Sariev announced on state television that Isakov and Interior Minister Alymbekov were in the South and on the job.
Jalalabad PG Governor Asanov reappeared on AkiPress, announcing that the Bakiev supporters who had taken his office would be arrested Friday. He boasted that they numbered only 60, so it should be an easy task. Hopefully he will pardon those of us in Bishkek for our lack of faith: he also announced that a new security force would be formed, assumedly from his own supporters, as local police had deserted their posts the previous day.
This post was written by...
Myles G. Smith – author of 12 posts on Registan.net.
Myles G. Smith is a project manager, consultant, and independent analyst based in Central Asia. His writing appears regularly at EurasiaNet.org, the Jamestown Foundation, and the Central Asia and Caucasus Institute. He is currently based in Kyrgyzstan, has lived in Turkmenistan and Russia and worked throughout the former Soviet Union. In the process of his work, he regularly consults a wide range of experts, officials, activists, journalists, academics, diplomats and entrepreneurs in the region. He is proficient in Russian.
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{ 26 comments }
“he also announced that a new security force would be formed, assumedly from his own supporters”
Well then. See you in 15 years after the government is overthrown by some religious group in a civil war.
You can also see it this way: when Islam comes as salvation after a civil war among the kafir and the secularists.
In MY opinion (not scientific) Kyrgyz do not have a highly structured culture therefore they are not strict managers. That is not a put-down. It is just a neutral observation based on my personal experiences with them. Back when the Soviet Union first collapsed the Kyrgyz forcibly took over many the businesses in towns from minority folks but after a few years of businesses going bust they hired the original owners in order to make it run efficiently. Disclosure: this is anecdotal.
That’s why their police didn’t act like Uzbekistan’s police and stop the demonstrations by comfortably shooting at whoever, but instead collapsed. I can imagine how badly those policemen must have been feeling inside having to shoot at their brethren. You can see the reluctance in their faces in one of those pictures. That’s why they didn’t learn from their past experience and close the roads around their white house to keep demonstrators at bay.
That’s why they are having the troubles they are having now trying to put together a governing body. That’s why they will depend on big brother bear or uncle Sam to hold do it for them.
I have nothing against Kyrgyz people. In fact I respect their freedom loving traditions a lot. I just think there is a clash of culture (pastoralism) with modernity (institutionalism) going on here that no one else has noted.
More anecdotal, possibly offensive (please excuse me), thoughts from Central Asians I have spoken to: Kyrgyz do not keep their homes clean (said by Uzbek), Kyrgyz don’t know how to cook (said by Uighur), Kyrgyz drink like Russians (said by Kyrgyz), Kyrgyz have no “culture” (said by Russian), Kyrgyz hate “us” (said by Meshketian Turk), Kyrgyz should go back to mountains (said by Dungan).
Bullshit. In my opinion. That’s not scientific. I just think that’s a horribly racist perspective.
Michael, I’m sorry you are offended. I also apologize to Kyrgyz people who are offended. I said it in my post, this is not scientific and it is just my opinion based on anecdotes. It may be racist to you but it is a fact of life in Kyrgyzstan. I did not make up those comments. We should be able to discuss things that are offensive to some people without malicious intention to offend. Otherwise scholarship will be blinded by science.
Example:
Bakiev was obviously subsidizing government utilities by cash revenue from fuel sales to US. When Russia fiendishly raised the tax for fuel exclusively to Kyrgyzstan, Bakiev did not have enough cash to pay for fuel, so he cut the utilities subsidies thereby raising the rates triple and quadruple to citizens. That’s incompetent politics on top of bad economics. Yeah, we know Kyrgyzstan does not have many sources of revenue, but you don’t use a temporary source of income to pay for your overhead, come on! …
I believe Soviet Union still exists by degrees. Soviet pensions are still paid, utilities are still subsidized, etc. These social services are contributing to some stability but they are also keeping the governments indebted and poor.
I agree with observation; nothing is racist here. Every nation goes from savagery to civilization. Kyrgyz, not long time nomads with no statehood traditions, are going through this. Hopefully they’re learning from experience.
‘Revolutioning’ is becoming more like a sport than a life-and-death struggle. It is encouraging that relatively few people have been killed, compared to the numbers involved. Reports today are that only two were killed yesterday.
But otherwise, the near-to-medium term picture is pretty grim. The Customs Union is going to significantly reduce income from the China-Russia transit trade, as well as raise import prices, tourism will suffer through this summer, and permitting and foreign investment in new mining operations are stalling as well. The poor economy is feeding everyone’s discontent, and it shows no signs of stopping.
Kyrgyzstan’s neighbors could help by opening their borders, but the neighbors are more concerned with containment of revolutionary impulse. Russia could do much by stating its intention to maintain the previous free trade agreement with Kyrgyzstan, but they have made no clear statements on this issue, and are holding on to that leverage for now.
Kyrgyzstan’s neighbors could help by opening their borders, but the neighbors are more concerned with containment of revolutionary impulse.
true, but this is logical approach. I don’t think US would happily open its border with Mexico if it was ruled by provisional government with dubious legitimacy not yet capable of controlling its territory. Ultimately, things depend on Kyrgyz, not on its neighbors.
You’re absolutely right, the US would not open its borders and Mexico would suffer for it.
I understand why they are keeping the borders closed, but that does not change the fact that its strangling the KG economy. One might even argue that isolating and contributing to the abnormal situation is helping perpetuate the problem.
Though I agree, ultimate responsibility to be patient, realistic, and constructive does lay with the Kyrgyz, and we haven’t seen nearly enough of that yet.
Really interesting post. For mine, these post-revolt spasms are intended to test the unity of the interim government and the ability of its mediator/leader. The fact that the interim government was able to regain control relatively quickly is promising. I share the doubts expressed by others, though, that it can hold things together for the several months required to consolidate and hold elections.
@Boratino
Of course, with the centralized nature of the Soviet system, all income flowed up to the top and subsidies went down from the top. But do you really believe that Kyrgyzstan was subsidizing Moscow and not the other way around? It is fairly widely accepted that Russia subsidized Central Asia, and I’d be interested to see your evidence to the contrary. Your assertion sounds like revisionist history, and again, I’d like to see your evidence.
Should we really call them ‘counter-revolutionary’ in this case? Historically that term (when accurate) has meant conservatives opposing a revolution in the political system and I am still skeptical of claims that the provisional government (PG) is really revolutionary. With that in mind the anti-PG actions seem more in support of their own politician than counter-revolutionary (unless we consider Bakiyev to have been the pre-2010 system).
On numbers, don’t forget that the 2002 Aksy, 2005 ‘Tulip’, and 2010 protests usually never numbered more than a few thousand to the best of my knowledge. With difficult terrain and a relatively small police/military, small numbers of protesters can have a larger effect than in a flatter nation with stronger security.
For the longer term picture, I think this is another sign that the PG will need to rely more on Russia for security and stability. The PG will need loyal forces for its survival, and Russia can provide money and training.
@Grant
You have an argument on the semantics, and I probably could have more accurately said ‘Pro-Bakiev’, though even that term has its problems. Many of these elements may have been out for their own interests (positions in government, businesses, family connections) rather than true belief that Bakiev is the best thing for the country. In a sense, they are conservative and ‘counter-revolutionary’ in that they are resisting change: they liked things the way they were before the leadership turned over.
But I think we’d all agree that the PG is less than ‘revolutionary’ in a 19th century European sense. Most people seem to think they Atambayev, Sariev, Tekebayev, etc, are the same stuff with different names. The PG does enjoy the support of the ‘pro-democracy’ portions of society, for what that is worth. Other than that, any support they have otherwise is based on the fact so few supporters of Bakiev remained by April, particularly outside of Jalalabad.
I also agree with you that a small number can push a lot of weight here. There have been no demonstrations in Bishkek that have been overtly ‘Pro-Bakiev’, and thus no sign thus far that his people can muster a show of strength here for now. But, things can change.
When things go wrong, it is often the case that outsiders become scape goats. I just thought, maybe some folks here are on the wrong side blaming IFI for Kyrgyz failure. What would have been if reforms proposed by IFI were not implemented? would KG not have become more prosperous or a failed state much earlier?
what was so wrong in IFI projects in KG?
Could it be!? Might we agree on something? Naturally, our point of agreement is that “Kyrgyz people are not inherently unable to grasp the basics of good government.” But I’ll cling to that. You’re totally right – if “history” and evolution of society meant anything (and they really, really don’t) then what the deuce with Europe? Why aren’t they a bastion of religious freedom, wealth, and liberal government? Why can’t Greece get its act together?
And I totally agree – this nomad crap has got to stop. Uzbekistan has a long history of sedentarization, yet can’t seem to manage its cities worth a damn compared to Kazakhstan. There is a lot more to this than racial profiling, folks — please stop explaining things away with fatalistic attitudes and racial/historical character flaws.
this nomad crap has got to stop. Uzbekistan has a long history of sedentarization, yet can’t seem to manage its cities worth a damn compared to Kazakhstan.
The issue of cultural differences is not crap. It does plays a role and explains lots of things. The role of nomadic culture (put differently ‘the love for freedom’ or ‘disrespect for rule of law’) deserves attention.
As for assertion that Kazakhstan manages its cities better than Uzbekistan – I am not expert. I assume you aren’t either. From what I heard, Uzbek cities are, in general, cleaner, safer, and have better roads compared to those in neighboring countries.
I’ve lived in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Whatever cultural differences there might have been are fading fast. The creation of the Soviet Citizen was more successful than people assume, ESPECIALLY in the areas of cities and care for infrastructure. Having lived with Uzbeks AND Kazakhs, the people I lived with had identical attitudes regarding roads, telephone lines, city planning, irrigation control… do you really think that Kazakhs are somehow “wilder” or something? Less respect for the rule of law? Care to back that up with anything? My belief is that all people really are equal, and if you grow up with the rule of law, then you respect it. It’s not a genetic or cultural thing – it’s a geographic thing, a political thing. In other words, please stop generalizing based on some supposed ethnic stereotype.
@Michael,
first asserting uzbeks can’t manage well their cities as kazakhs, then saying both have identical attitude to cities… sounds a bit inconsistent.
No one argues all people are equal. Though they are different, and culture plays a role in making people unique. In fact, experts study such differences; I read somewhere, that French workers strike the most in Europe, Germans the least; this is considered by businesses when making their investment decisions.
Analogically, experts dealing with Central Asia would benefit from looking up the issues of culture. I guess you, as the one with experience of living in region, might shed some light for those interested.
I would argue that economic collapse in Kyrgyzstan after the USSR was more or less inevitable. A large portion of the government budget was delivered in subsidies from Moscow. Compensating for those subsidies was inevitably going to lead to inflation. The country had a relatively modest industrial base, and lost markets for its produce when neighboring economies collapsed in the 90s as well. Even the transit trade that it does enjoy is inefficient – more expedient routes to/from China or Russia would transit Kazakhstan, yet the trade passes through Kyrgyzstan merely because of Kazakhstan’s restrictive tariffs.
Kyrgyzstan and Russia have had a free trade agreement in place for years, and WTO membership of one country certainly does not preclude this. If Russia is to join the WTO now, which it intends to do, Kyrgyzstan can use its leverage to get an even better deal on bilateral trade with Russia. WTO membership is just a set of standard rules. Also, my understanding is that Russia’s EAEC free trade agreement with Kyrgyzstan still binds. I am not aware of 200% punitive tariffs imposed on Kyrgyzstan due to its WTO accession, and would like to see your evidence for that. I am aware of the recent revoking of the free trade line on fuels, which had a lot to do with Putin hating Bakiev and nothing to do with KG’s WTO membership.
WTO membership also doesn’t preclude Kyrgyzstan from raising tariffs on imports of some goods as a protective measure, in order to develop its own domestic industry. Rather, the ludicrously low import tariffs are the result of decisions taken by the Kyrgyz government for the benefit of internal special interests. For example, in 2004, Kyrgyzstan lowered import tariffs on 400 categories of items to $0.15/kilogram, including fabrics, silks, and cottons. Trade barons running Dordoi and Kara-Suu certainly benefit from dirt cheap imports, which are re-exported to Russia at a markup and with virtually no capital investment. But this is kills domestic industry, and requires a domestic political response. The West could have done better by Kyrgyzstan, no one doubts this, but Kyrgyzstan could do much better for itself with honest, smart governance. It just has not do so yet.
I agree that after the Soviet crash Kyrgyzstan was further dislocated when it was became a consultantocracy and a social laboratory for IFI-promoted neoliberal concepts.
“And what was the outcome? Some UN programs discussing ala-kachuu, gender equality, and all that kind of stuff.”
And jobs for Bishkek’s золотая молодёжь who staff many of these IFI and IO offices.
Instead of blaming everyone else for Kyrgystan’s problems (and indulging in this fantasy of Kyrgyz racial superiority), why not accept that the real failure is of Kyrgyzstan’s elites to set aside their personal agendas and build a functioning government? Every political leader — be it Akaev, Kulov, Bakiev, or Atambaev — has put their own interests first.
There doesn’t seem to be any point to this Abdrisaev-Semyonov-Livingston article. What are they arguing exactly? That Kyrgyzstan should quit the WTO? What will that accomplish? That Kyrgyzstan should trade more with the US (which is very far away and has very limited transportation routes with Kyrgyzstan)?
People seize on this WTO issue as some kind of proof that Kyrgyzstan did everything the “evil” foreign advisors said, but in actuality, there remained lots of issues. Look at the poor ratings the country got in the World Bank’s “Doing Business” ratings. [I know, I know, the WB are evil neo-liberal neo-con homosexual-loving kafir-nazi-zionist-christian whatever else you hate stinky-cheese-eaters. If you can't put together a rational argument, just throw out insults and use lots of punctuation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]
I found this prophecy on the internet:
By 2026, China will have taken over effective control of most of Russia and Central Asia. The declining birthrate in Russia will shrink the population, thus opening up room for a Han Chinese takeover. In Central Asia, political instability and the recurring collapse of successive governments after the death or removal of authoritarian leaders will result in China coming in as (permanent) “peacekeeper”. Combined with its control of significant natural resources in Africa, China will become the sole “superpower” as a disinterested USA reverts back to its isolationist past and refuses to get involved in the “internal issues of sovereign countries”. Because of China’s preeminent global role, ethnic groups within Siberia and Central Asia will assimilate into the Han Chinese after deciding, “I’d rather be Han than gone!”
The Hazara, however, will form their own autonomous region within this “Greater China”, as a result of their great culture and impressive ancestors. Their ancient nation has a long history — did I mention they’re ancient? That’s why their history is long.
My predictions are 200% true. Add up the numerals in 2026 and you get 10. 10 is more than 9. I also predicted the decline of Britney Spears.
Why not accept the both: Klepto-consultocracy of IFI staff and kleptocracy of Kyrgyzstan’s elites? Boratino and tictoc, you’re both right.
brilliant,
did you write all this having eaten the soup with fly or two?