There seems to be two lines of intent to the conspiracy. One, as stated by Bakiev’s ‘grassroots’ supporters in the South, was that the Counter-Revolutionaries would declare an Autonomous Southern Krygyz Republic, which would maintain its own separate security forces but share foreign and trade policy.
This version is in keeping with the attempts by Bakiev to divide and conquer since his downfall, calling for a partition of the country or his own reinstatement in order to prevent the civil war that he appeared to be fomenting himself. The ‘North-South’ divide of popular lore does not appear to be getting traction among the people. Perhaps not coincidentally, such a republic would control the main heroin runs from Tajikistan. Many anti-Bakiev figures have claimed that the former ruling family was directly involved in the drug trade.
The second theory was voiced by PG head Otunbayeva yesterday, who asserted that their eventual intent was to retake control in Bishkek using supporters of the popular former Mayor of Bishkek Tyuliev. Then, Communist Party leader Masaliev would reform parliament and elect Bakiev back into office. She asserts that they were financed from Almaty by Marat Bakiev, and coordinated on the ground by former Bakiev staffer Usen Sydykov. The PG also released tapes purporting to be of Sydykov giving orders to operatives within the country.
Some people here are finding the Tyuliev-Bakiev connection hard to swallow, as he came out against the utility tariff hikes that were so unpopular. There is also near-uniform agreement that the city’s administration improved dramatically during his tenure. Otunbayeva has been adament that Tyuliev had business connections with the Bakievs, and if he were innocent, he should give himself up and prove as much.
Its also possible that both versions are at least somewhat true, with the Bakiev faction trying to take the South first, then use that momentum to move on Bishkek. If they could not get the whole pie, they would at least have a slice. Judging by how quickly they collapsed, especially outside of Jalalabad, it appears that their forces are weak or uninspired. At the same time, judging by the feeble resistance offered by security forces, the same might be said of the PG in the South.