Unhappy Thought for the Day

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by Nathan Hamm on 8/5/2010 · 2 comments

Akaev’s overthrow in 2005, Bakiev’s ouster in 2010, and the whole sad mess of violent rioting and protest after Bakiev’s fall make protests and clashes like what took place today seem more and more likely in Kyrgyzstan’s political future. The past five years, and especially the past several months send a fairly clear message to elites: get a mob and grab some power.

There are numerous incentives for elites not part of the (slowly… poorly…) developing new political order to take a shot to assert themselves and fairly few consequences for taking a shot (especially in the provinces). And the consequences are frightening.

“I think these events will escalate right up to [parliamentary elections in the fall]. It reminds me of the Tajik scenario, where politicians would use any means to gain power,” he said, referring to the conditions that led to Tajikistan’s civil war.

Photo snipped from David Trilling’s photo essay on the protest

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Nathan is the founder and Principal Analyst for Registan, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. More information on Registan's services can be found here, and Nathan can be contacted via Twitter or email.

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DPT August 9, 2010 at 1:54 am

Perhaps one of the more disheartening effects of the “color revolutions” was a new incentive for elites, hoping to create oligarchies, to pass off ochlocracy as democracy…

Pa-chi-mu August 13, 2010 at 2:17 am

Акыл Жумабаев (Младший брат Эркина Джумабаевича Алымбекова, зама Текебаева), будучи Председателем Кыргызавтобанка, украл деньги из кассы, все свалил на кассирш, девочек кассирш посадил в тюрьму. Деньги потратили на выборную кампанию Эркина Алымбекова 2000 г. Ай-да паразиты, ай-да сукины дети. Это же не мелочь тырить по карманам в маршрутке. Какова компашка Текебаева, а?
Сразу видно масштабных деятелей. И эти люди пишут у нас Конституцию.

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