Akaev’s overthrow in 2005, Bakiev’s ouster in 2010, and the whole sad mess of violent rioting and protest after Bakiev’s fall make protests and clashes like what took place today seem more and more likely in Kyrgyzstan’s political future. The past five years, and especially the past several months send a fairly clear message to elites: get a mob and grab some power.
There are numerous incentives for elites not part of the (slowly… poorly…) developing new political order to take a shot to assert themselves and fairly few consequences for taking a shot (especially in the provinces). And the consequences are frightening.
“I think these events will escalate right up to [parliamentary elections in the fall]. It reminds me of the Tajik scenario, where politicians would use any means to gain power,” he said, referring to the conditions that led to Tajikistan’s civil war.
Photo snipped from David Trilling’s photo essay on the protest