John Little of Blogs of War posted an interview with me about the razing of Tarok Kalacha/Kaloche, COIN, and the inevitably meaningless year of 2014.
I don’t see any evidence that we’re actually going to withdraw in 2014. Even Joe Biden, who had been consistently and vocally supporting “drop-dead” withdrawal dates, just told Hamid Karzai that we’ll be sticking around past 2014. So from where I sit, that leaves Afghanistan largely unchanged—there might be some withdrawal, but probably not to the extent that even people like CNAS advocate (which would be down to near-2005 levels, or around 25,000-30,000 troops). There will also be an increasingly shrill wing of the commentariat that will cry bloody murder at the thought of reducing our presence without catastrophic victory, regardless of ground conditions—which is exactly what’s happened with the July, 2011 date.
So, 2015? It will probably look much more like 2008 than anything else. And that ain’t good.
Substantially more, over at Blogs of War.