Just to show there isn’t a monolithic thing called Registan, I thought I would voice my opinion. I think of Afghanistan as being separated from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan by a 700-foot tall magical wall of ice. This ice wall represents the historical trajectory of the 19th and 20th centuries that took two locales connected in history towards to very different horizons. Of course they remain geographically connected, but the infrastructures and realities there are, for all of me, quite difficult to compare.
There is probably too much said of the ethnic differences on either side of the Hindu Kush, but it’s worth repeating that in some sense, Uzbek-i-stan and Tajik-i-stan and Turkmen-i-stan, places where people self-identify as Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Turkmen, all must include northern Afghanistan. And yet, I’m nervous about the prospect of the “friendship bridge” at Termez being put into use. On a superficial level, it will be one more way for the US to mimic the faults of the USSR. In another much more real way, it will cause many of the same problems.
And here I mean that Karimov is more or less promising to keep his populace in line as he aids and abets a foreign power that is striving to dominate his southern neighbor. This southern neighbor is bound by ties of ethnicity and religion and history, and the everyday Uzbeks of Uzbekistan may look down their noses at the Uzbeks of Afghanistan, but they’re certainly more likely to let a son marry one of them than let one marry a Russian or American. What I mean is – we are making this same mistake that cost the USSR so much. The Uzbek citizens on the ground in Uzbekistan have no reason to help the US handle southern and eastern Afghanistan, and if problems in northern Afghanistan develop as a result of this partnership, they will likely be involved in actively working against us.
This is me shooting from the hip in response to Joshua’s very logical and well-written piece, and I doubt the Atlantic is gonna be knocking on my door after this. But I would just have it be known that I am not convinced by Nathan and Joshua’s arguments, though I respect them a lot. In short, I think this will be helping Afghanistan at the expense of Uzbekistan, and not really helping that much. I don’t doubt that Karimov is glad to see this happen. Do we really need another reason to question it after acknowledging that?
This post was written by...
Michael Hancock-Parmer – author of 159 posts on Registan.net.
Michael earned an MA in Central Eurasian Studies in 2011 and remains a student at Indiana University pursuing a dual PhD in Russian History and Central Eurasian Studies. He served 6 months in the Peace Corps in Uzbekistan in 2005. After the events in Andijan and the subsequent closure of the program, he served 2 years in southern Kazakhstan, returning to the Midwest in 2007. His general area of interest is on post-Timur Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, centered on the Syr Darya river valley.
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{ 9 comments }
Michael, fair enough. However, I think you’re dramatically overstating the social ties across the border (except in the case of Tajikistan maybe). I’d be more convinced that this was something to worry about if I saw some direct evidence to back it up. In fact I feel good saying that there’s at least equal anecdotal and comparative evidence to support the claim that Central Asian governments and their populations aren’t all that far off when it comes to Afghanistan.
Your characterization of the relationship is a bit odd. There’s a shipping arrangment and depending on how one slices it a quid pro quo for an increase in security assistance (which isn’t unlimited or unfettered). It’s nothing so dramatic as a plea to keep the people of Uzbekistan down as we subdue the proud Muslims of Afghanistan. It’s just moving stuff on the transportation infrastructure. I have a hard time seeing what great cost that inflicts.
What happens when the inevitable killing of several thousand Uzbek terrorists working out of Pakistan becomes part of the equation? If the American aim is to pacify the Hindu Kush region, as well as southern Afghanistan, then all of those Uzbek technicians who taught at the S. Waziristan camps, who allied with Hakeemullah and Baitullah Mehsud, who operate today out of N. Waziristan–they must be dealt with. Word is, they live as family units, meaning that many of them will become collateral damage. Surely, word of Uzbek mass-death in any country will rile-up the locals, much as the recent blow-up around Osh, Kyrgyzstan. Karimov may very likely have to put the brakes on Uzbek anti-Americanism in the days to come.
There are daily killing under Karimov. Daily. It is not just Ferghana, it is the whole country under fear. Whitewashing it won’t help. Supporting Karimov will not free our routes of supply and it will earn the US the enmity of the Uzbeks. Karimov does not represent the wishes or aspirations of anyone but himself, even his supporters quake in fear at night.
Wrong Government to work with, these “not good, or the best” equivocations just do not work. Big mistake all around.
When you arm the military which is the vehicle for oppression you are going “whole hog” and you can never equivocate on a regime like this one.
Mr.Anderson, where did you get that “daily killing” idea?
You are exaggerating as most of those Humans with Rights and Watches. And why people keep blaming on Karimov for every single misfortune that happens in Uzb? You think he has nothing else to do but think of how to kill his own citizens? There are tons of decision makers in every sector in the country. Starting from water management to Citizen service and protection. When one of the guys who run the show fails to do his job right or makes mistake(willingly or unwillingly), is it all Presidents fault? Come on guys, be little reasonable.
As for Uzbekistan agreeing on US proposal to use its territory, it was damn good decision for the benefit of Uzbeks. And if you don’t know why, let me know and I’ll explain to you.
Thanx
Looks like the US had better have some way out of there.
Oct. 06 2011
The Associated Press
KABUL, Afghanistan — Hundreds of people marched through the streets of the Afghan capital on Thursday, demanding the immediate withdrawal of international military forces ahead of the 10th anniversary of the U.S. invasion.
“The United States said it came to help the Afghan people and provide a good life to Afghan people, but their true purpose was to occupy our country,” said Farzana, a 22-year-old woman who goes by one name. “It is 10 years since the invasion of Afghanistan and all it has left behind is the blood of the Afghan people. We want the U.S. to leave our country.”
http://tinyurl.com/3orq3fl
Clearly the general Uzbek population have to soon face up to the fact that, no matter how much they may dislike Karimov they have to choose between him or a future under the Taliban. Unfortunately this rather equates to Hobson’s choice.
I think it would be right to compare Uzbekistan to the position of Turkey in the Near East and Middle East, albeit with some big differences. Or at least Uzbekistan would prefer to be seen that way, as a secular country with strong institutions, the will to cooperate with the US, and to preserve the untouchability of the Atauzbek figure.
It is untrue that Uzbekistan would put the interest of the nothern parts of Afghanistan higher than those of the South. Uzbekistan looks at Afghanistan as a gateway or a transit country towards sea ports in Pakistan. It will always consider this fact, and also the fact that Southern Afghanistan may well be under influence of Pakistan, hence trying to have exlusive handling of one part over the other would not rational.
OT: My congratulations to Mr. Foust for having an open blog. It’s not ever thus. Some others want an amen chorus. Not Mr. Foust. Shows character.
And look at the great input he gets as a result! Smart, thinking people contributing valuable facts and opinions, with a notable lack of bullshit and emotional outbursts. Go Registan.
OMG. Never thought that it’s that bad. I mean first of all it’s really dramatic that people in there (US) overestimate the bonds between Afghan Uzbeks and Uzbek Uzbeks. Of course there are ones, but not to the extent, depth and solidness as presented by Mike. We have been apart for too long, there’s little that would tie us as strong as is the case with Kyrgyz Uzbeks (who are our relatives, we do business together, we make friends, our folks marry each other). Of course it does not mean we don’t talk with each other, we do, but still not willing to go further. The second simple-mindedness is about blaming Mr. Karimov for every bad that happens in the world. Relax guys, it’s not true. if you draw from political theories – they will tell you that there’s no way in the modern world to be total usurper of power, that in the globalized world, there are too many actors and stakeholders which eventually reduces any attempt of becoming an usurper to playing power-broker. Mr. Karimov is not an exception either. Be rational guys. Be a scholar and not an anecdote narrator, for Jesus sake.