Archive of Mathieu BOULEGUE

A Sciences Po and King’s College London alumnus, Mathieu Boulègue is an analyst in the field of Russia/CIS security and geostrategic issues. He currently works as a project manager for a risk management consulting firm. He is also a founding member of Sogdiane, a strategic think-tank on Eurasian affairs.

Mathieu has written 16 articles at Registan.


No such thing as a “succession war” as Uzbekistan enters the post-Karimov era

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

For the first time since its independence, Uzbekistan is experiencing the tremors of managed political transition. On September 2 at 9 pm local time, President Islam Karimov officially died in the intensive care unit in Tashkent, where he had been treated since August 27 after suffering a brain hemorrhage and subsequent stroke. Conflicting reports stated […]

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NATO moves from reassurance to actual deterrence against Russia

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

Defense, deterrence, dialogue. This motto sums up the NATO Summit in Warsaw rather well. On July 8 and 9, NATO members gathered in Poland to confirm and flesh out the plans unveiled during the 2014 Wales Summit in terms of reassurance to the Allies and increase in the Alliance’s defenses on its Eastern flank.   […]

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Kazakhstan at odds with homegrown terrorism

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

  In June, Kazakhstan fell victim to homegrown terrorism. On June 5, a group of about 20 unknown armed assailants stormed two gun supply shops and a National Guard base in Aktobe (Northwestern Kazakhstan) in a vaguely coordinated assault that initially left 4 gunmen, a police officer, and 2 civilians killed. The gunmen started with […]

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The ups and downs of Prime Minister Yatseniuk

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

Yatseniuk 0, Poroshenko 1 – but who’s counting? On February 16, the Cabinet of Ukraine, led by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk, lived to see another day after the Rada failed to pass a vote of no-confidence. A flurry of political declarations sprouted ahead of the fatidic vote when the Rada factions of the BuYT, Samopomish […]

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Local elections in Ukraine bring mixed results

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

On October 25, 26.7 million Ukrainian voters were called to elect their 168,450 local and regional representatives in the first local elections since the Maidan. With a relatively low turnout of 46.62 percent, the elections represented a genuine test of popularity for the government as well as a barometer of popular discontent over the course […]

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A half-frozen low-intensity conflict in Eastern Ukraine?

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

Caught in a “no war, no peace” situation, Eastern Ukraine is slowly but relentlessly diving into a low-intensity conflict. From the onset of the crisis, barely two years ago, Ukraine has been at war with Russia over the territorial integrity of Crimea and separatist Donbas – two fronts Kyiv has to deal with simultaneously. Through […]

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The Ukrainian crisis between fluidity and glaciation

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

Over the past few weeks, the war in Donbas between Ukrainian armed forces and DPR-LPR separatists has transformed into a mix of stagnant, almost frozen conflict and fluid hybrid warfare. Under the conditions of a shaky truce and the overall lack of respect of the Minsk 2 agreements, the war goes forth on a level […]

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Ukraine on the eve of a new offensive in Donbass?

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

Amid worrying signs that a new military offensive might be launched by Kremlin-backed separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine, the Foreign Ministers of the “Normandy Format” – namely Russian Sergei Lavrov, German Frank-Walter Steinmeier, French Laurent Fabius, and Ukrainian Pavlo Klimkin – met in Berlin on April 13 to discuss the further implementation of the Minsk […]

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The woeful strategic and military aftermath of the Minsk 2 agreement between Ukraine and Russia

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

On 11 February, a four-way meeting attended by Presidents Vladimir Putin, Petro Poroshenko, François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, alongside OSCE and Donbass representatives from the Contact Group, took place in Minsk to discuss what we dubbed the “last chance” for peace over the Donbass conflict and the Ukrainian crisis. After more than 16 […]

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Some thoughts on Russia’s updated military doctrine

by Mathieu BOULEGUE

On 26 December 2014, President Vladimir Putin signed into law the revised version of Russia’s 2010 military doctrine. Left largely unchanged, the document still encompasses what is commonly called a “defensive” stance, i.e. the fact Russia will deplete all non-violent means to settle a diplomatic issue before engaging in military might and resorting to use […]

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