EurasiaNet reports that Azerbaijan wants a closer relationship with the US, but fears upsetting Russia. Azerbaijan thinks it can gain more than it would lose by strengthening its ties to the U.S.
Aliyev’s administration appears to feel that the opportunities created by a stronger US-Azerbaijani relationship outweigh the potential liabilities. “We attach a particular attention to developing relations of friendship and cooperation with the US,” Aliyev said in a November 4 letter of congratulations to Bush, the state news agency reported. “Azerbaijan, which is following a path of building a democratic, legal and secular society, is resolute in taking its relations with the United States to a higher level.”
But…
While Aliyev has clearly articulated his desire for a stronger US-Azerbaijani strategic relationship, he has given no indication of how he would turn words into action. Novruz Mamedov, head of the presidential administration’s foreign policy department, indicated that “some changes” are inevitable, but he was evasive when pressed by journalists in Baku. The lack of an implementation framework for new initiatives leads some Azerbaijani observers to question whether the country’s existing foreign policy will actually change significantly.
And, it is quite possible that this is all just talk. Russia has been increasingly assertive of late, and strong US involvement, especially military involvement, runs the risk of drawing the ire of both Russia and Iran.
Of course, what is happening in Ukraine right could impact Russia’s involvement in the affairs of its other neighbors.
Russia’s future stance toward Azerbaijan could be influenced by developments in Ukraine, where an increasingly bitter political standoff over fraudulent presidential election results is ongoing. If pro-Moscow forces succeed in retaining power in Ukraine, Russia could feel emboldened, and attempt to expand its influence in other CIS states, including Azerbaijan. Conversely, if opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko succeeds in coming to power, Russia could find itself bogged down in a geopolitical struggle over Ukraine. Yushchenko makes no secret that he would steer Ukraine towards integration with the West.
This post was written by...
Nathan Hamm – author of 2973 posts on Registan.net.
Nathan is the Founding Editor and Publisher of Registan.net, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. Nathan is currently seeking research, analysis, and consulting opportunities. He can be contacted via Twitter or email.
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{ 2 comments }
As things develop in Azerbaijan, the most important neighbor to keep in mind might not be Russia, but Iran.
Down the road, I bet the US wants Azerbaijan to be to Iran what Hungary, Serbia, and Poland have been to the Ukrainian opposition movement.
This should get interesting.
We’ll just about have Iran surrounded!