Elections & Democracy Watch 02-25-05

First off, I want to give honorable mention to those who have posted about this weekend’s elections: Larry Tweed, Brian Ulrich, Andy Young, Righteousbiche (who is pregnant, congrats!), and Transition Trends. If I’ve missed anyone, please let me know.

Kyrgyzstan

• Separate posts today from Registan.net: Foreign Ministry reaction to Ambassador Young’s remarks, Hope
• CIS observers, led by Vladimir Rushailo, are in Bishkek today to put their seal of approval evaluate preparations for the election.
• Here is AP’s coverage in the LAT.
• Turkish Daily News talks to Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador in Ankara. [Excerpts below]
• Turkey’s Zaman Online reports on the election and also has a priceless comment from the ambassador. [Excerpts below]
• RIA Novosti has more pricless commentary on what’s really going on. [Excerpts below]
• Vremya Novostei on the protests and campaign.
• Russia has declared its official opposition to foreign interference in Kyrgyzstan’s elections. This is a rather new position for Russia (as evidenced by its bet hedging) after it discovered that taking a cudgel to Ukraine’s electoral process was counterproductive.
• Guardian coverage
• There are two key pieces of information in this brief RFE/RL story: protesters have dispersed in Kochkor while the Bokonbaev protest continues and police are increasing security across the country.
• RFE/RL’s Daniel Kimmage has an information-packed piece on Kyrgyzstan’s protests.

Tajikistan

• The BBC has a short report (there’s a longer audio version out there somewhere).

Turkish Daily News excerpts:

As a result of the structural reforms of the Kyrgyz Republic’s Jogorku Kenesh (Parliament), the total number of parliamentary seats will be reduced by one third, to total 75. Moreover, executive power under the new system will be expanded by the transfer of some formerly presidential authority to the joint mandate of the head of state and of the parliament, said Karypkulov.

The appointment of key governmental positions such as the prime minister, all Cabinet members and the judges of supreme, high and local-level courts are to be appointed by the president after their approval by the parliament, according to the new constitution.

By holding fair and free elections, Kyrgyzstan intends to become a model for other countries in the region.

From Zaman Online:

Kyrgyzstan’s Ambassador to Ankara Amanbek Karipkulov told Zaman: ” One hundred percent of our people are literate. For this reason, it is hard for them to accept their fingers being stained with ink. They are asking, ‘Why are you demanding votes if you do not trust us?’ But a decision has been made. The US paid for the ink as there was not a shared source in our budget for this. The US also covered the costs of transparent ballot boxes.”

Those nefarious Americans! I bet the Western press is just lying and this is what the protests around the country are really all about! (If I expanded that to 500 words, I bet BHHRG, The Guardian, Pravda, or Antiwar.com would publish it.)

The opposition has said: “We will start a revolution like in Georgia and Ukraine.” Karipkulov responded by saying: “There is no need for this. It is already that the people’s demands will be put into power. The government is not interfering in the election process. We have invited 600 foreign observers. Observers from the Organization For Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Shanghai Cooperation Forum and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will monitor the election.”

And the best of Pyotr Goncharov’s RIA commentary:

There are no objective preconditions for a velvet revolution a-la Georgia or Ukraine in Kyrgyzstan. The population will hardly support this revolution if the opposition launches it. This is a popular opinion in Kyrgyzstan’s capital Bishkek. This is the opinion of not only Askar Akayev’s supporters but also high-ranking politicians sharing many opposition’s claims against the incumbent leadership and even cooperating with the opposition.

According to their concept, Kyrgyzstan unlike Georgia does not suffer from territorial problems, ethnic conflicts, unemployment and social tensions. The peak of these tensions fell on 1996-1997 when not only velvet but also more radical variants were possible in Kyrgyzstan. Since then it achieved the 7% GDP growth which is not bad for the country earning no oil money. Unlike Ukraine, at the moment Kyrgyzstan does not have to choose a strategic partner, Russia or the United States. There are no strong oligarchic groups ready to raise this problem. However, Kyrgyzstan is likely to see it, probably, in the near future.

Which is to say that Kyrgyzstan has no real problems that would make any of its citizens upset and if any social unrest were to occur it would be because the US would punish Kyrgyzstan through debt restructuring talks.

And from Ferghana.ru’s translation of the Vremya Novostei story:

t should be noted that the candidates whose registration was voided are not activists of the opposition. They are former officials like Zheenbekov, ex-head of the State Property Foundation. All of them are quite popular but all of them have enemies on the regional and local levels, and these enemies have their own proteges they want in the parliament. Eyewitness testimony indicates therefore that even whoever did not belong to the opposition until now is joining its ranks these days.

Surprisingly, but the authorities of the republic have withheld comments so far. Local observers venture two explanations of that silence: the regime is either demoralized, or it plans some radical countermeasures. A command exercise of the national army and security structures took place in Kyrgyzstan a month ago. The involved units and structures drilled their actions when the state of emergency was introduced in the country to prevent mass disturbances during elections.
…
US Ambassador Stephen Young made a symptomatic statement on February 21. “Akayev’s decision not to run for presidency again will put him in history books as one of the founders of democracy in the country,” the diplomat said. “Failure of the election in Kyrgyzstan to meet democratic standards and requirements will affect relations between the United States and Kyrgyzstan and relation between Bishkek and the rest of the world.”