Comments on: Will Russia Intervene in Kyrgyzstan?

By: Nathan

Nathan — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 17:04:53 +0000

You’re right. Poor choice of words. Imperialist is better.

As for ethnic divisions, I’ve seen nothing that indicates that they’re a factor. They have been a problem in Osh in the past… I did hear something in passing about Osh residents not being entirely with the protesters in the city (many of whom I’ve also heard are not from the city itself). That would seem to indicate that analysts who said minorities support Akayev might be right. I’m not quite sure though.

By: Alexei

Alexei — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 07:49:34 +0000

Nathan, how are ethnic divisions in Kyrgyzstan playing out in the unrest? I understand Osh has seen several outbursts of Uzbek-Kyrgyz ethnic violence since the late 1980s.

As an aside, Rogozin is acting like an imperialist more than a nationalist. (He’s probably a puppet of the Kremlin playing the part of a vocal supporter of Russian interests.) A true nationalist like me should object to Russian troops being sent to risk their lives for no compelling reason.

By: Laurence

Laurence — Tue, 22 Mar 2005 07:06:26 +0000

Tim, you have a point. Maybe Russia will do nothing, and Akaev will step down.

By: Tim Russo

Tim Russo — Mon, 21 Mar 2005 21:47:35 +0000

The Russian army, particularly in that neck of the woods, has probably long since pickled itself with homemade mulberry vodka. I would imagine it might have a hard time intervening in civil unrest.

By: Laurence

Laurence — Mon, 21 Mar 2005 20:52:04 +0000

BTW, I think, at least at one point, Rogozin was chairman of the State Duma Committe on International Affairs–so he may be plugged-in to what the Kremlin is thinking about…

By: Laurence

Laurence — Mon, 21 Mar 2005 20:45:13 +0000

I remember having a conversation in Tashkent , during the Nord Ost Theater hostage crisis, with a US State Department official just about to leave the country. He was adamant that Putin would not storm the building, because of the VIPs among the hostages. Putin wouldn’t risk killing innocent civilians, he said to me. I answered that I didn’t see that Putin had any alternative other than storming the theatre. In the end, Putin stormed the theatre, killing some VIPs.

I’m not saying that it is inevitable that Russia will act, but that unless some alternative presents itself, such as the rebellion calming down, that Russia will be forced to act, just as Russia acted in Tajikistan, after things got out of control…

By: Nathan

Nathan — Mon, 21 Mar 2005 20:39:47 +0000

Like I said earlier, I highly doubt it. I think Putin’s fairly clumsy on the international stage, but he’s gotta know this is a situation he doesn’t want to get involved in.

Russian nationalists saying wacky things in the Duma are a dime a dozen.