Comments on: Kaplan on Uzbekistan http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/ All Central Asia, All The Time Thu, 24 May 2012 20:41:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Anne http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11814 Anne Tue, 05 Apr 2005 19:54:26 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11814 I agree that Kaplan's observations are good but his conclusions are sometimes a bit odd. I agree that Kaplan’s observations are good but his conclusions are sometimes a bit odd.

]]> By: praktike http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11593 praktike Tue, 05 Apr 2005 01:29:08 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11593 Well, keep in mind that Kaplan was prowar, but mainly because he wanted to scare Iran into better behavior. That hasn't worked out so good. He also wanted to install a benign autocrat, and that didn't work so great either. We should have held elections much earlier. Well, keep in mind that Kaplan was prowar, but mainly because he wanted to scare Iran into better behavior. That hasn’t worked out so good. He also wanted to install a benign autocrat, and that didn’t work so great either. We should have held elections much earlier.

]]> By: Kirk H. Sowell http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11592 Kirk H. Sowell Tue, 05 Apr 2005 01:22:47 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11592 I have long been a fan of Kaplan because he got a lot of bad things right when others were talking about how the world was just getting better and better. This is not only true in the Balkans and Africa, but when he wrote about Russia having little social base for democracy I didn't believe it, but now I do. But I should note that Kaplan himself has admitted being surprised at how well the Iraqis have been handling their young democracy, given what a rotten past they have (see Kaplan's recent Wall Street Journal op-ed on Syria). So perhaps he has been extrapolating too much from West Africa. Or maybe he just didn't understand Iraqi Shi'ism, and didn't see the guiding force that the Ayatollah Ali Sistani was been. Paul Bremer may have fouled every thing up he touched, but Sistani really have been the firm but wise voice Iraq needed when it could have blown apart. I have long been a fan of Kaplan because he got a lot of bad things right when others were talking about how the world was just getting better and better. This is not only true in the Balkans and Africa, but when he wrote about Russia having little social base for democracy I didn’t believe it, but now I do.

But I should note that Kaplan himself has admitted being surprised at how well the Iraqis have been handling their young democracy, given what a rotten past they have (see Kaplan’s recent Wall Street Journal op-ed on Syria). So perhaps he has been extrapolating too much from West Africa.

Or maybe he just didn’t understand Iraqi Shi’ism, and didn’t see the guiding force that the Ayatollah Ali Sistani was been. Paul Bremer may have fouled every thing up he touched, but Sistani really have been the firm but wise voice Iraq needed when it could have blown apart.

]]> By: Curzon http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11586 Curzon Tue, 05 Apr 2005 00:06:32 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11586 Sorry for the multiple posts. Listen to the second mp3 here: http://www.cominganarchy.com/archives/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-cominganarchycom/ He basically says: I'M NOT PERFECT! Sorry for the multiple posts.

Listen to the second mp3 here:
http://www.cominganarchy.com/archives/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-cominganarchycom/

He basically says: I’M NOT PERFECT!

]]> By: Curzon http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11584 Curzon Mon, 04 Apr 2005 23:54:40 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11584 Also, in the rest of that book, look how optimistic he is about Laos, Thailand, Turkey, and Iran. He isn't a pure pessimist, just a pessimistic realist. Also, in the rest of that book, look how optimistic he is about Laos, Thailand, Turkey, and Iran. He isn’t a pure pessimist, just a pessimistic realist.

]]> By: ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Robert Kaplan learns about ComingAnarchy.com http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11583 ComingAnarchy.com » Blog Archive » Robert Kaplan learns about ComingAnarchy.com Mon, 04 Apr 2005 23:54:02 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11583 [...] ;I’m a moderate, middle-of-the-road conservative.” Interesting. UPDATE III: Nathan takes on Kaplan from an unrelated angle over at the Argus—Kaplan fans and foes alike, join in the conver [...] [...] ;I’m a moderate, middle-of-the-road conservative.” Interesting. UPDATE III: Nathan takes on Kaplan from an unrelated angle over at the Argus—Kaplan fans and foes alike, join in the conver [...]

]]> By: Curzon http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11581 Curzon Mon, 04 Apr 2005 23:42:34 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11581 You, sir, are a charlatan and a scurilous wag-about! How dare you! LOL My impressions about ENDS OF THE EARTH are that it is very dated. Remember he was traveling in 1994, and places change a lot in that amount of time. I met an investment banker who was in Hungary from 1993-2001, and he said he saw it go from worse than Russia to better than Germany. I think the original coming anarchy article exagerrated because at the time Kaplan was rebutting the lovey-dovey sentiment of the world post-Haiti and post-Somalia. He ain't perfect -- but as a general world affairs expert, I believe him to be the best. You, sir, are a charlatan and a scurilous wag-about! How dare you!

LOL

My impressions about ENDS OF THE EARTH are that it is very dated. Remember he was traveling in 1994, and places change a lot in that amount of time. I met an investment banker who was in Hungary from 1993-2001, and he said he saw it go from worse than Russia to better than Germany.

I think the original coming anarchy article exagerrated because at the time Kaplan was rebutting the lovey-dovey sentiment of the world post-Haiti and post-Somalia.

He ain’t perfect — but as a general world affairs expert, I believe him to be the best.

]]> By: praktike http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11570 praktike Mon, 04 Apr 2005 22:25:23 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11570 Ah, but recently, he <em>has</em> been offering concrete strategies (e.g. "Supremacy by Stealth"), but those are mostly related to military training programs and not for the kinds of transnational environmental problems he really frets about. Ah, but recently, he has been offering concrete strategies (e.g. “Supremacy by Stealth”), but those are mostly related to military training programs and not for the kinds of transnational environmental problems he really frets about.

]]> By: Nathan http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11545 Nathan Mon, 04 Apr 2005 18:46:45 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11545 But, like I said, I think he's best identifying how the past affects the present, but I'm less impressed when he talks about the future. And, at least with Uzbekistan's case, I kind of feel like he was discounting the enormous effects of recent political history (he talked about the environment plenty) in favor of some notion of the pre-modern Central Asian Turk. Good observations, but (and this is the part I need to convince Curzon of) no particular policy path (least of all realpolitik!) follows. But, like I said, I think he’s best identifying how the past affects the present, but I’m less impressed when he talks about the future. And, at least with Uzbekistan’s case, I kind of feel like he was discounting the enormous effects of recent political history (he talked about the environment plenty) in favor of some notion of the pre-modern Central Asian Turk.

Good observations, but (and this is the part I need to convince Curzon of) no particular policy path (least of all realpolitik!) follows.

]]> By: Nathan http://registan.net/index.php/2005/04/04/kaplan-on-uzbekistan/comment-page-1/#comment-11544 Nathan Mon, 04 Apr 2005 18:42:31 +0000 http://www.registan.net/?p=4994#comment-11544 I agree, Joe. I've noticed what praktike points out pops up way too often in Kaplan books I've read. If you're going to assert that someplace will disintegrate/attack its neighbors/etc. you need to tell a pretty convincing story. I agree, his Atlantic stuff is impressive and it's the stuff of his I'm most familiar with. I agree, Joe. I’ve noticed what praktike points out pops up way too often in Kaplan books I’ve read. If you’re going to assert that someplace will disintegrate/attack its neighbors/etc. you need to tell a pretty convincing story.

I agree, his Atlantic stuff is impressive and it’s the stuff of his I’m most familiar with.

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