The GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova — Uzbekistan was a member from 1999 until 2002 when it indefinitely suspended participation in the group) summit is underway in Chisinau. Ukraine’s Secretary of the National Security & Defense Council has already assured Russian that GUAM is not anti-Russian. There is considerable public friction between three of the four members and Russia.
Political changes in those three – Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova – have Uzbekistan on edge about renewing its cooperation with the organization. On agenda for the summit is defining GUAM’s relationship with Uzbekistan and other states (such as Romania, who is in membership negotiations with GUAM.)
Jamestown’s Vladimir Socor has a two part article on the organization’s new lease on life after years of failure to come up with much of a reason to exist. A handful of changes have led to GUAM’s current relevance:
The first change is NATO’s and the European Union’s enlargement, tipping the domestic political balance in GUAM countries decisively toward the Western orientation. The second factor is a growing awareness of Euro-Atlantic interests in the broadly defined Black Sea region to which the GUAM countries belong. The third factor is the advance, however uneven, of institutional reform and democratization in the region, coupled with an improving economic performance. The fourth factor is the conclusive failure of Russian-led integration projects and demise of the CIS, contrasting with the active role of such countries as Poland, Lithuania, and Romania — all three invited to this GUAM summit — in anchoring the region to the West.
The issues under discussion include Euro-Atlantic integration, security cooperation, and energy transit. Mentions of Georgia and Moldova’s secessionists appears to be cautiously stated. Perhaps the organization is trying to find its legs first while it determines its strength and gathers friends. This interview with Moldova’s foreign minister suggests that GUAM has no shortage of friends waiting in the wings and that the organization has a bright future ahead of it.
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Nathan Hamm – author of 2040 posts on Registan.net.
Nathan founded Registan.net in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural factors shape risks and opportunities. Follow him on Twitter or drop him a line.
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Saakashvili’s announcement of the “next revolution” wasn’t as grandiose as it seemed to have been played up on Mosnews. But it seems that it was Belarus, as when he went up, he spoke for the organization that they were ready to help promote democracy there. All in all, a good day!