I more thoroughly explain my view in a post here: http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=2814

I just wanted to add a couple of thoughts to Richard and Carpetblogger’s comments.

Richard notes the ironic “one man, one vote” principle beloved of many dictators. I’d argue that all politicians (except the *really* deranged) are actually quite happy to work within whatever system they see has the most benefits to them. The trick with emerging democracies is to make playing by the democracy rules seem more attractive than stepping outside the rulebook. It’s tricky, but it’s why we should be trying to build up a framework for democracy, rather than simply trying to prop up a candidate with democratic credentials.

Carpetblogger notes that 33% does not a majority make. Which is mathematically spot on, of course. But, in terms of politics, not really so important – especially when it comes to coalition governments. There, simply being the largest party counts for so much, as it provides the opportnity to lead and frame the political debate.

I feel that this is one of the key areas that political commentators in both the US and the UK tend to overlook -and it’s a trap that I unconsciously fall into on a regular basis. Being so used to first past the post electoral systems, and two party systems, we tend to underestimate the importance of being skilled political operators, able to work within, lead, and hold together, fragile coalitions. Instead, we have an underlying tendency to see politics through the zero-sum paradigm.

However, it’s hard to factor out Russia’s overt meddling in Ukraine politics — factors largely absent in Eastern Europe. Yanukovich is an opportunist (nothing against that…). He never used to have a problem with NATO and WTO, but his benefators are aggressive and aggrieved now and smell Orange blood in the water. It’s naive to to think that Yanukovich and the thugs and murderers around him have undergone a democratic transition, no matter how many US-based PR firms they hire to convince us otherwise.

Yanukovich runs the risk of overplaying his hand — POR’s 33% does not a majority make. However, he is a much more skilled politician than Yushenko and is creating the perception of public support more effectively than the Orange team. All elections are referenda on the incumbent and Ukrainians sent a strong message in March that their president wasn’t living up to his potential. They just didn’t give anyone else a mandate.

I don’t believe Ukraine is politically in the same place at all as it was before the OR, by any stretch. Civil society is vibrant and increasingly organized around countless issues. I have a hard time imagining that ordinary Ukrainians will let their hard work in 2004 slide down the drain.

What democracy is there to protect if competition isn’t open to all?

Once someone like Yanukovich (or Castro, or Saddam) gets their hands on the voting aparatus, they’ll never lose an election. Yanukovitch learned the last time. Next time, he won’t let those protesters get together. He’ll just shoot the first hundred or so, and that will discourage the rest.