Bah.

#28
From: Timothy Blauvelt
Subject: On Sergei Roy, JRL #170
Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2006

In believing in the verisimilitude of the supposed psychological analysis of Mikheil Saakashvili that has been circulating in Georgian opposition newspapers and elsewhere, Mr. Sergei Roy has fallen victim to an obvious hoax, one most likely perpetrated by the intelligence services of one of Georgia’s northern neighbors: “The mysterious assassination of Mr Saakashvili” (http://edwardlucas.blogspot.com/2006/06/mysterious-assassination-of-mr.html) and “The spurious ‘Psychiatric’ assessment of Mr Saakashvili” (http://edwardlucas.blogspot.com/2006/06/spurious-psychiatric-assessment-of-mr.html).

That this report, purportedly originally written in English, is a fake should be clear from the very title to any first-grader who happens to be a native speaker of English: “Mikhail Saakashvili: A Psychological Study of the Character.” In any case, as a friend pointed out to me, much of the “analysis” involved could pretty much be applied to any world leader..

Mr. Roy’s historio-ethnographic digression on Svaneti has omitted a more recent chapter: In the post-Soviet period Svaneti had become a particularly dangerous place, a lawless safe-haven for local criminal groups that thrived on contraband in the conflict zone and robbed anybody and anything that moved. Shortly after the Rose Revolution, in March 2004 the Georgian Interior Ministry carried out a similar “anti-criminal action” and in the space of several hours eliminated these criminal groups when they refused to give themselves up peacefully (http://www.hri.org/cgi-bin/brief?/news/balkans/rferl/2004/04-03-26.rferl.html) (#26), (http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=6513). Following that operation, Svaneti has become incalculably more safe and tranquil, and hosts thousands of tourists and backpackers from around the world every year (I myself spent a week strolling around the valleys of upper Svaneti without any protection shortly after that operation, in the summer of 2004).

Lastly, although we still do not have full information about the forces used in Kodori Gorge, at this point it seems most likely that the operation was not in violation of the 14 May 1994 Agreement on Cease-fire and Separation of Forces (http://www.rrc.ge/law/agrm_1994_05_14_e.htm?lawid=428&lng_3=en). The agreement states that there shall not be heavy military equipment within the established security zone. Kodori Gorge is north east of the security zone, and by entering via Svaneti Georgian troops (it is also not clear if they were entirely Interior Ministry police or if Ministry of Defense troops were involved) did not traverse that zone (http://www.civil.ge/IMG2006/Kodori.shtml). Further, “heavy military equipment” is defined in the agreement as artillery and mortars of a caliber exceeding 80 mm, tanks and armored vehicles. Again, we do not yet have full information, but from currently available reports it seems that Georgian hardware was comprised of KAMAZ trucks, Niva utility vehicles and Kalashnikov assault rifles (all of Russian rather than NATO manufacture, obviously) (http://www.iamik.ru/?op=full&what=content&ident=29229).

As to Mr. Roy’s assertion that the Georgians in the Kodori operation “are very likely accompanied by US advisors,” well, Mr. Roy is free to continue to use his imagination to make up anything he pleases.

Timothy Blauvelt
Tbilisi, Georgia

Interesting Article by Mr. Roy. I would say its quite neutral considering Russians ,Psycho, attitude to Georgia and other post-soviet States. I am interested who asked (ordered) these medical institutions to evaluate Georgian President Saakashvili’s mental health??? Maybe russian FSB?

http://www.rferl.org/specials/gallery/ca-pipelines/Natural-gas-pipeline.gif

Apparently Saakashvili has chosen to embellish his psychiatric anamnesis by picking a few thousand blood feuds. That would be his business, of course, if this strange predilection did not have international repercussions. By bringing a sizable military force into the Kodori Gorge, the Georgian side has broken the 1993 Moscow agreement that stopped the war between Georgia and Abkhazia; it has also violated the exercise of the peacekeeping mandate by the Russian troops stationed there, and disrupted the work of UN observers.

The most sinister aspect of this military venture, though, is the fact that the current situation is reminiscent of what happened in 1992. At that time Eduard Shevardnadze brought Georgian troops into Abkhazia on the pretext that he wished to disband and arrest certain “criminal elements” — supporters of the ousted President Zviad Gamsakhurdia. We know what that ended in — one of the bloodiest conflicts on FSU territory. Now Saakashvili claims that he only wishes to deal with another batch of “criminals,” the Svans. That’s what he says. What he has done is different: he has brought his troops right up against the positions held by Abkhaz units. Throw a match in there — or a stray bullet — and the place will go up in flames.

So what — just another local conflict, you might say; and you would be dead wrong. This is not 1992, this is 2006. Eighty percent of the population of Abkhazia are now Russian citizens, with Russian passports to prove it, and the Russian foreign ministry, as well as the defense ministry, have stated in no uncertain terms that Russia will defend its citizens with every means at its disposal. Look at the other, Georgian side, and you will see that those troops have been trained by US officers, their arms and equipment come from NATO, and they are very likely accompanied by US advisors. If anyone starts anything here, US and Russian officers will be looking at each other across a frontline.

The consequences of that might be worse than calling a man a fool in Svaneti.

BTW such a war scenario is central to the plot of Gary Shteyngart’s novel ABSURDISTAN (actually set in Georgia)…