Third Parties & the Georgia-Russia Conflict

The EU has weighed in on the conflict between Russia and Georgia with what The Independent calls “a toughly worded statement.” The statement is said to be stronger than was expected, but judging by the final product (PDF – page 25), it is hard to see how much more watered down the statement could be while still taking some kind of stand.

The Council expresses its grave concern at the measures adopted by the Russian Federation against Georgia and at their economic, political and humanitarian consequences. The Council urges the Russian Federation not to pursue measures targeting Georgians in the Russian Federation.

That is about as tough as it gets, but that is apparently enough for the Georgians. Prime Minister Nogaideli calls the statment “very important,” and Giorgy Arveladze, the head of the Georgian presidential administration, said on Rustavi-2 that Europe is at Georgia’s side and that it is “absolutely indignant at Russia’s policy.” That appears very clearly packaged for public consumption and it gives exactly the kind of impression one might expect that the nationalist Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili, who has extremely close ties to the station (for example, see this) and who has recently put his desire to ratchet up tension with Russia on great display, might want to give.

France led efforts to tone down the EU statement, and only accepted it when it made reference to UN Security Council Resolution 1716 (PDF). And it is far from clear that other European states are entirely prepared to let the conflict between Russia and Georgia trump good relations with Russia at this week’s summit in Finland.

If it is any consolation to Georgia though, Estonia is behind it one hundred percent. The Estonian Parliament passed a resolution (DOC) on the Russia-Georgia conflict not only condemning Russia but also prodding other European states to pay attention to the situation.

The Riigikogu considers these steps taken by Russia to be in sharp conflict with the principles of international relations. Continued presence of foreign armed forces on the Georgian territory inhibits the development of the state and does nothing to foster the resolution of latent conflicts.

The Riigikogu stands for democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms in Georgia and in Russia, and condemns all manifestations of xenophobia and racism.
…
The Riigikogu calls on the Government of the Republic and citizens’ organisations to make all possible efforts in order to assist the state of Georgia and its citizens in overcoming the consequences of the blockade and in strengthening the young democracy in Georgia.

The only thing that Georgia is really called on to do in the resolution is to ignore Russian provocation and to refrain from doing anything that “might be interpreted as provocative.”

As for the United States, Ariel Cohen discusses at EurasiaNet how the Georgia-Russia conflict is challenging US diplomacy. He says the US, with plenty of other international issues on its plate, should try to quickly defuse the conflict. And how those other issues are impacting US maneuverability over Georgia can be seen in what Vladimir Socor calls Georgia’s shortchanging in the UN (in reference to the aformentioned UN Security Council Resolution). With Russian satisfaction being absolutely necessary on other issues, particularly and most relevant to the bargaining over this resolution, North Korea, the US had to make a few hasty concessions. Socor, as one might expect, calls this a decision that sets a bad precedent.

Ultimately, this bargaining can suggest to Moscow and some third parties that the United States is capable to a certain extent of treating the interests of even a very close partner — which Georgia is — as potential bargaining chips for Russia’s “help on” a global issue that suddenly comes to a head. It is a game in which Moscow can and did enjoy the upper hand over the United States time and again in the UNSC. Trading off the interests of loyal U.S. allies in this process is futile and self-defeating.

And though Georgia claimed the resolution a victory in public, it took a statement from John Bolton making clear that the US views the Kodori operation as assertion of Georgia’s sovereign rights to convince the Georgians they were not being sold out. (More on the back and forth over Georgia and North Korea can be found in today’s Eurasia Daily Monitor.)

In related news…

Azerbaijan says that it cannot supply Georgia with additional natural gas to help Georgia prevent the possibility of an energy crisis this winter. It is suspected that Azerbaijan may have made this decision in deference to Russia.

Georgia says that Russian naval exercises in the Black Sea are taking place within its territorial waters and that it plans to bring the issue before international organizations.

The speaker of Georgia’s parliament says that bilateral dialogue should resume between Moscow and Tbilisi.

Abkhazia will hold military exercises next week. Meanwhile, Abkhazia’s parliament has officially appealed to Russia for recognition of its independence. IWPR reports that there is speculation that Russia may extend formal recognition of independence to South Ossetia and Abkhazia to increase pressure on Georgia.

Ukraine’s Communist Party boss says that his country has illegally provided tanks to Georgia.