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	<title>Comments on: A Sea Change in the Desert</title>
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	<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2007/03/11/a-sea-change-in-the-desert/</link>
	<description>Central Asia News -- All Central Asia, All The Time</description>
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		<title>By: Brian</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2007/03/11/a-sea-change-in-the-desert/comment-page-1/#comment-367897</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Mar 2007 15:51:30 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I see what you&#039;re saying, and that is an advantage if we don&#039;t screw it up.  Trying to help Turkmenistan diversify its gas exports away from Russia is one thing, but actively trying to isolate Iran is another.  The former is certainly in everyone&#039;s benefit, but the latter is just dragging Turkmenistan into someone else&#039;s argument.  

I&#039;m just saying that if we push too hard to try to prevent Turkmenistan from economically engaging Iran we won&#039;t be acting in their best interests and won&#039;t be looked at as a neutral 3rd party.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see what you&#8217;re saying, and that is an advantage if we don&#8217;t screw it up.  Trying to help Turkmenistan diversify its gas exports away from Russia is one thing, but actively trying to isolate Iran is another.  The former is certainly in everyone&#8217;s benefit, but the latter is just dragging Turkmenistan into someone else&#8217;s argument.  </p>
<p>I&#8217;m just saying that if we push too hard to try to prevent Turkmenistan from economically engaging Iran we won&#8217;t be acting in their best interests and won&#8217;t be looked at as a neutral 3rd party.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Foust</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2007/03/11/a-sea-change-in-the-desert/comment-page-1/#comment-367800</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua Foust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Mar 2007 12:12:29 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Brian - exactly.  We don&#039;t personally need Turkmenistan&#039;s gas, but helping Europe and China cut Russia out will benefit everyone in the long run.  I think the U.S. can act as a third party benefactor, offering modernization and trade in exchange for an open gas market.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brian &#8211; exactly.  We don&#8217;t personally need Turkmenistan&#8217;s gas, but helping Europe and China cut Russia out will benefit everyone in the long run.  I think the U.S. can act as a third party benefactor, offering modernization and trade in exchange for an open gas market.</p>
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		<title>By: Brian</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2007/03/11/a-sea-change-in-the-desert/comment-page-1/#comment-367431</link>
		<dc:creator>Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Mar 2007 15:58:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/index.php/2007/03/11/a-sea-change-in-the-desert/#comment-367431</guid>
		<description>Very interesting comments.  One thing, we may not need their gas, but we certainly don&#039;t want them sending it through Iran.  And a (larger) pipeline through Iran would diversify their customer base and would make good economic sense for them, which would be in their best interests.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Very interesting comments.  One thing, we may not need their gas, but we certainly don&#8217;t want them sending it through Iran.  And a (larger) pipeline through Iran would diversify their customer base and would make good economic sense for them, which would be in their best interests.</p>
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		<title>By: noah tucker</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2007/03/11/a-sea-change-in-the-desert/comment-page-1/#comment-367302</link>
		<dc:creator>noah tucker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Mar 2007 05:02:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/index.php/2007/03/11/a-sea-change-in-the-desert/#comment-367302</guid>
		<description>Cf Ian&#039;s post about the Turkmenistan conference at Harvard two weeks ago... Tom Simons, former State Department coordinator for aid to all the CIS countries (and Deputy Undersecretary before that, among other things) apparently spent a good long time on the phone with the political officer in Ashgabad and folks back in the State Department and gave a briefing on new policy. 

While I doubt Bush could find Turkmenistan on a map, the State department, according to Simons, is very interested in cultivating new ties with Turkmenistan and has twice sent a Deputy Undersecretary (the highest level contact we&#039;ve had with them in years) to Ashgabad since Turkmenbashi&#039;s timely demise. 

Simons did say, though, and I think Ian quoted him on this, that there is dissent in State between those who want to take a didactic approach with Ashgabad (as has largely failed in Uzbekistan) and those who prefer the carrot rather than the stick. At this point, they&#039;re apparently working on a list of short and long term goals for Turkmenistan and both sides are shuttling diplomats back and forth to work out the details of some new agreements. We are, however, trying not to rub this in the Russian&#039;s face, so we&#039;re not making noise about it, and according to Simons, there is absolutely nothing in the works for airbases or military cooperation. 

Simons made a very interesting point... although there&#039;s a lot of ground to cover to create any kind of working relationship, we&#039;re basically the only party in the mix who don&#039;t want Turkmenistan&#039;s gas--which puts us in a unique position to be able to advocate for reforms that are genuinely in the best interest of the Turkmen people (medicine, education, human rights, etc) without having to frame everything around gas and pipelines.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cf Ian&#8217;s post about the Turkmenistan conference at Harvard two weeks ago&#8230; Tom Simons, former State Department coordinator for aid to all the CIS countries (and Deputy Undersecretary before that, among other things) apparently spent a good long time on the phone with the political officer in Ashgabad and folks back in the State Department and gave a briefing on new policy. </p>
<p>While I doubt Bush could find Turkmenistan on a map, the State department, according to Simons, is very interested in cultivating new ties with Turkmenistan and has twice sent a Deputy Undersecretary (the highest level contact we&#8217;ve had with them in years) to Ashgabad since Turkmenbashi&#8217;s timely demise. </p>
<p>Simons did say, though, and I think Ian quoted him on this, that there is dissent in State between those who want to take a didactic approach with Ashgabad (as has largely failed in Uzbekistan) and those who prefer the carrot rather than the stick. At this point, they&#8217;re apparently working on a list of short and long term goals for Turkmenistan and both sides are shuttling diplomats back and forth to work out the details of some new agreements. We are, however, trying not to rub this in the Russian&#8217;s face, so we&#8217;re not making noise about it, and according to Simons, there is absolutely nothing in the works for airbases or military cooperation. </p>
<p>Simons made a very interesting point&#8230; although there&#8217;s a lot of ground to cover to create any kind of working relationship, we&#8217;re basically the only party in the mix who don&#8217;t want Turkmenistan&#8217;s gas&#8211;which puts us in a unique position to be able to advocate for reforms that are genuinely in the best interest of the Turkmen people (medicine, education, human rights, etc) without having to frame everything around gas and pipelines.</p>
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