I mentioned last night that the fighting in Waziristan, though maybe good in isolation, would actually prove problematic for the region. To back this up, I said it plays right into the hands of Musharraf.
Musharraf thrives on crisis. He maintains and builds support like any other dictator, by doing so in the name of security. The infighting in Waziristan may make some giggle at the prospect of Islamists butchering each other for a change, but it provides a very good excuse for Musharraf to either cancel or rig elections in the name of stability.
He hasn’t done that yet, but he has taken it as an opportunity to once again tout his “gains” in counterterrorism, as he tries to play off the quite spontaneous fighting as part of his master plan all along. Griffe Witte backs this up, reporting that most involved, including local politicians, see it as a distraction from the “real” battle, which is against the foreign occupiers of Afghanistan. And that Islamabad is trying really to make it seem like part of its plan.
Sadly, though, the fighting is just a natural consequence of the friction that results from so many competing nationalities and interests, even if they are mostly aligned. The fighting itself will be temporary. But I am worried it will be spun into something with far worse implications.
This post was written by...
Joshua Foust – author of 1771 posts on Registan.net.
Joshua Foust is a Fellow at the American Security Project and the author of Afghanistan Journal: Selections from Registan.net. His research focuses primarily on Central and South Asia. Joshua is a correspondent for The Atlantic and a columnist for PBS Need to Know. Joshua appears regularly on the BBC World News, Aljazeera, and international public radio. Joshua is also a regular contributor to Foreign Policy’s AfPak Channel, and his writing has appeared in the New York Times, Reuters, and the Christian Science Monitor. Follow him on twitter: @joshuafoust
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Oh, I never thought of that, but come to think of it, the timing is suspicious and I will refrain from giggling but will just snicker. Either way, he doesn’t need that excuse to rig elections, he did it once before (re. Dawn reports from the last elections).
But we must admit, whatever his intent this is a good development even in the long-term ( for instance: the militants will grow weary of factions within their ranks and also distrust elements in the Pakistani army). It’s ultimately a dangerous game, but it will force Musharaf to play his hands against at least some of the factions. Distraction or not Musharaf will remain in power.
Thanks for pointing this out.