RFE/RL reports that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is in a bad, bad way in Pakistan. The fighting between the IMU and tribes in Waziristan that has previously been mentioned at Registan.net is continuing, and the IMU is caught between a rock and a couple hard places.
The RFE/RL report quotes an Afghani Pashtun leader as saying that Afghanistan would be a more hostile environment for the IMU than Pakistan. It would have less local protection and would face attacks from US and NATO forces. Unless a peace can be reached in Pakistan, the IMU will probably have to head north.
“If the Uzbeks want to travel from South Waziristan north to Tajikistan they have a fairly straight way along the FATA, the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas, where the Pakistani government does not have much control constitutionally and it’s a very mountainous region. That’s where basically Al-Qaeda, Taliban, and other people are still there, so [the Uzbeks] have ways to go through those places,” [RFE/RL Afghan analyst Amin] Tarzi says.
“Then they hit one area that is in Swat and Chitral, which have some of the highest mountains in Pakistan. That connects them to the Pamir area, which is the panhandle of Afghanistan. Crossing that you are right in the Pamir region of Tajikistan, which is the most inaccessible region of Tajikistan where [the Uzbeks] can regroup,” he concludes.
At the very least, an IMU return to Central Asia would tell us whether or not SCO counterterrorism cooperation can accomplish much.
This post was written by...
Nathan Hamm – author of 2974 posts on Registan.net.
Nathan is the Founding Editor and Publisher of Registan.net, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. Nathan is currently seeking research, analysis, and consulting opportunities. He can be contacted via Twitter or email.
For information on reproducing this article, see our Terms of Use
{ 1 comment }
Dear Nathan,
Excuse me for the out-of-place eulogy, but it’s just such a relief to read your pieces. Whenever I feel out of touch with events and developments in Central Asia, which is increasingly the case nowadays, I turn to Registan for a fast update. Then, I suddenly feel that I’m at grips again, and things just come back to me, filling the gaps in the puzzle. So, thanks for doing a great job and actually making a difference!
Yours,
Vilhelm