A Union is Born

Nursultan Nazarbaev was recently in Bishkek telling the Kyrgyz political establishment how best to run their country. While Nazarbaev’s political advice has appropriately gotten most of the attention, one of the interesting things to come out of the meeting that has gotten less attention is the birth of the Central Asia Union.

Another important result of Nazarbayev’s visit is the formation of a bilateral Central Asian Union with Kyrgyzstan that will deal with interstate border issues, trade, visa regimes, tourism, and security. The union’s formal name suggests that it is the first step toward realizing Nazarbayev’s idea to create a Central Asian regional organization that would not include any extra-regional forces such as Russia, China, or the United States.

A region-wide organization is still a long way off, but sometimes it is out of small agreements that large things are born.

Much could frustrate the growth of the union. Uzbekistan’s earlier attempts to create its own regional union failed largely over unease with fears over Tashkent using such an organization to dominate its neighbors. In Kyrgyzstan, Nazarbaev’s tone and the prospect of Kazakhstan’s dominance of Kyrgyzstan are already causing some discomfort.

Some Kyrgyz find it uneasy to admit that their culturally similar neighbor will dominate Kyrgyzstan. As Kyrgyz MP Azimbek Beknazarov commented, Nazarbayev’s address to the Kyrgyz parliament conveyed a sense of superiority and pomposity. Politicians such as Beknazarov may potentially inspire Kyrgyz nationalism against Kazakhstan’s greater economic involvement. As Kyrgyz civic activist Edil Baisalov observed, today the Kyrgyz public is more ready to accept the fact that hundreds of thousands of labor migrants work in Kazakhstan rather than agreeing to cater to Kazakh tourists in Issyk-Kul resorts.

Nazarbaev says that the region’s states should relate as equals, but it is easy to see why some are worried by his tone.

“We propose Kazakhstan’s experience of development and modernization, which only comes in conditions of stability. Investment does not come to an unstable country,” Nazarbayev said in remarks broadcast by Kazakhstan’s state-owned Khabar TV. Kazakhstan is “ready to invest billions of dollars in Kyrgyzstan’s economy,” provided that Kyrgyzstan demonstrates a greater degree of political maturity, Nazarbayev added.

The failure of Bakiyev’s administration to heed his warning could have dire consequences, Nazarbayev said. Speaking in an interview given jointly to Khabar and Kyrgyz state TV, Nazarbayev adopted an unprecedented stance of bluntly commenting on Kyrgyz domestic political matters. “First, all [the factions] must sit at the negotiating table, second, one must respect authorities who have been elected by the people, and these authorities must use their power to establish order in the country in a democratic and lawful way,” Nazarbayev said.

He may be right, but it is a rare thing indeed to find a country that does not bristle at even polite advice publicly given.

This post was written by...

Nathan Hamm – author of 2974 posts on Registan.net.

Nathan is the Founding Editor and Publisher of Registan.net, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. Nathan is currently seeking research, analysis, and consulting opportunities. He can be contacted via Twitter or email.

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