Comments on: It Might Be Turning Around

By: Alex Strick

Alex Strick — Fri, 11 May 2007 23:28:10 +0000

Indeed I think this post may have been premature. The taking of civilian lives is one of the most serious defects of a military-based approach to the problems in Afghanistan. And it’s important not to forget casualties of such bombings. If there were 80 dead, there will have been many more wounded.

AfghanWire has a new podcast this week with Vanni Cappelli commenting on civilian casualties. I think it’s well worth a listen.

By: David

David — Fri, 11 May 2007 11:00:08 +0000

You don’t make a good case for optimism. This “fighting off the insurgents” is somewhat short lived. The Taliban just move back in when they get a chance.

As for the mounting civilian casualties, I rather doubt that this means much to most Afghans — If I were them, I would feel it’s quite a cynical gesture, indicating only how little the US values Afghan lives ($3000 a person).

I can only imagine that ordinary (or organized) Afghans are only seething, and I wonder when the next accident will happen that will trigger some kind of public outrage as seen by the riots in Kabul last May — which took everyone by surprise. Imagine all that had precipitated that outburst pales in comparison to what has been going on recently.

By: Joshua Foust

Joshua Foust — Fri, 11 May 2007 10:46:16 +0000

It seems like a good idea, doesn’t it? And it allowed the French to consolidate a lot of their power in North Africa… but then it also failed during the Algerian independence. I don’t think NATO has adopted oil spot theory, though, at least officially. I think they just don’t have the resources to do all the missions they want, and they’d rather focus on ones with a higher chance of long-term success.

By: Lachlan

Lachlan — Fri, 11 May 2007 10:40:25 +0000

For ‘insouciance’ read ‘oil-spot’ theory of counter-insurgency. The idea is not to physically dominate as much territory as possible / annihilate the enemy military. Instead, the intention is to consolidate acceptance of central government rule in the strongest areas, encourage the rejection of insurgents and then spread out once a good example has been set. Prudent no?