One theme that runs through my writing on Afghanistan is how tough it is to find a consistent narrative (though I’ve never been explicit enough before to come right out and say as much). I know that’s a terribly lazy thing to say, but I don’t like summarizing a place by just saying “well, it’s complicated” or some variant.
Anyway, far more interesting than my inability to wrap my head around the reality of insurgency and the problems facing the West in building the place is the deep contrasts of personal experience. For example, Hasham Watanwal, the representative of Uruzgan province in the Wolesi Jirga, claims his province is 90% under Taliban control. He blames this on—you guessed it—underinvestment, underdevelopment, and a sloppy western military. More interestingly, he blames the Ministry of Interior Affairs for this (recall that I agree with the Karzai government that only is more aid absolutely necessary, but that it will only be effective if channeled through Interior Affairs). Still, 90% sounds awfully high if you only go by the reports coming out of NATO and the Danes.
It makes for an interesting contrast with the state-run newspaper Hewaad, which claims that three villages in Helmand rose up against the local Taliban, killing many and driving the rest away. Much like my other reporting of similar events in the east, it’s unquestionably good news, though I have to temper this with the recent clashes between Kabul and the media.
Regardless, it’s remarkable that Helmand is fighting back on its own, now that the fight has shifted to Uruzgan. Can we in fact claim the British and Canadian strategy in the south is paying off, and that at this point is it merely a matter of time before the Taliban are universally unpopular? Probably not. Give credit where credit is due, to be sure—I couldn’t say without talking to them or having someone else talk to them whether they are now fighting the Taliban because they hate the Taliban or because the West has like, inspired them or something.
My point, however, is that we just don’t know. Much of the country remains dangerous for those of us with blindingly white skin untouched by the sun in ages. It’s just damned tough to get reliable information on what things are like on the ground, apart from government or military spin. As a result, we can’t say for sure whether or not we should be calling for a change in tactics, strategy, or policy. It is very frustrating.
This post was written by...
Joshua Foust – author of 1801 posts on Registan.net.
Joshua Foust is a Fellow at the American Security Project and the author of Afghanistan Journal: Selections from Registan.net. His research focuses primarily on Central and South Asia. Joshua is a correspondent for The Atlantic and a columnist for PBS Need to Know. Joshua appears regularly on the BBC World News, Aljazeera, and international public radio. Joshua is also a regular contributor to Foreign Policy’s AfPak Channel, and his writing has appeared in the New York Times, Reuters, and the Christian Science Monitor. Follow him on twitter: @joshuafoust
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