Threats from Within: Regionalism and Foreign Policy in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan

Although I still have one paper to finish, the heavy lifting required to finish my degree program is complete. And for those so inclined to read about seventy pages on how domestic political cleavages drive the foreign policies of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, feel free to download a copy of my thesis.

Updates
I wrote this post while running out the door on Friday, and did not have time to insert some of the thanks I feel are in order. First and foremost, I want to thank Stephen Hanson for encouraging me to be a better political scientist throughout this project and for making me excited to do the work (even if my excitement usually evaporate when it came time to do the writing…) Ilse Cirtautas also deserves thanks for her help with Uzbek language sources and with research on cultural questions. Craig Murray and Sean Roberts both answered questions early on that helped me nail down the direction in which I was heading with my argument. Josh also deserves plenty of thanks for producing so many posts while I was busy with the thesis. And last but not least, I thank all of you who are taking the time to read the final product.

And, if you are the type to read these kinds of things, go on over to neweurasia, where Ben Paarmann has posted his recently completed master’s thesis. It coincidentally also deals with sub-national regionalism, though he only analyzes Kazakhstan.

Here’s an excerpt that more or less summarizes things:
/End Updates

For almost the entire period since independence, rigidly divided and very powerful regional elite networks have been a threat to Islam Karimov. His foreign policy decisions have reflected his worries about the position of both he and his allies in the Tashkent elite. He has therefore entered into close partnerships with first Russia, then the United States, and then again with Russia in search of external patrons who could offer him both the ability to credibly claim an external guarantor of his regime against domestic foes and investments that would allow him to build an elite class reliant on the state for its power. In Kazakhstan, President Nazarbaev initially faced what he perceived to be grave ethno-regional threats to Kazakhstan’s territorial integrity. But because Kazakhstan’s domestic politics were initially contested along both ethnic and regional cleavages at three levels, he has had a much easier time dismantling the threats of elite networks to his rule. In the early years of independence, he worked domestically to contain ethno-regional threats, and his foreign policy exhibited his concern over the loyalties of Kazakhstan’s northern oblasts. In the mid-90s, Nazarbaev began to dismantle the bases for ethnic and regional political identities and to create an elite class dependent on the state. Kazakhstan’s elite groups squabble among themselves, but none challenge the president, as he is the source of all political power in Kazakhstan. Nazarbaev’s foreign policy decisions now show few signs of presidential concerns over domestic challengers. Unlike Karimov, who seeks quickly realized investment and external security guarantees from allies, Nazarbaev chooses to keep Kazakhstan friendly with – but not too close to, multiple foreign partners – and to defer the possibility of immediate investment for the chance at better deals for Kazakhstan down the road.

One of the more important outcomes of the differences between the two president’s foreign policy strategies is that they have yielded unexpected outcomes in the perceived balance of power in Central Asia. Early analyses predicted Uzbekistan would become the most powerful state in Central Asia and the anchor of regional stability. Kazakhstan, though, is the state that has emerged in the last few years and the perceived leader among Central Asian states, and it is relating to at least some of its neighbors in the region as a source of stability and advice on good governance.

This post was written by...

Nathan Hamm – author of 2974 posts on Registan.net.

Nathan is the Founding Editor and Publisher of Registan.net, which he launched in 2003. He was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Uzbekistan 2000-2001 and received his MA in Central Asian Studies from the University of Washington in 2007. Since 2007, he has worked full-time as an analyst, consulting with private and government clients on Central Asian affairs, specializing in how socio-cultural and political factors shape risks and opportunities and how organizations can adjust their strategic and operational plans to account for these variables. Nathan is currently seeking research, analysis, and consulting opportunities. He can be contacted via Twitter or email.

For information on reproducing this article, see our Terms of Use