I believe that they toyed with Georgia, testing their air defenses, and dropped a missile near a new radar station that has been somewhat contentious between the two countries.

Might seem like semantics, I suppose – but I think it is an important difference. Both acts are provocative, but one is an act that they can deny and the other (firing a missile) is one they couldn’t not reasonably deny.

I have the impression that China is quite eager to see the U.S. air base removed from Bishkek. They also still covet Taiwan, which the U.S. essentially defends. Russia supports the “One China” mantra, so the two nations forming a political and military block makes a great deal of sense. They have been trading in arms for years, are set to trade more petroleum and gas resources, and are the likely allies. China is simply more intertwined with the U.S. economy. But even that has almost reached the point where the U.S. needs China more than vice versa.