Comments on: Karimov Forever!

By: Ataman Rakin

Ataman Rakin — Fri, 31 Aug 2007 14:34:41 +0000

“All of the above, I think.” ))) And add: the Taliban invade Uzbekistan but return to Kandahar once their visas expire.

OK: ‘Romania ’89′…

*unorganised, poverty-driven unrest in one of two provincial towns, spreads to other parts of the country;

*palace coup, IAK is deposed then shot by members of his own SNB, GIK/Googoosh flees to Russia or is caught and booted in prison (or hopefully shot as well);

*meanwhile, period of street chaos with lootings, score settlings and lynchings of hakims, hated police officers and the odd IFI expat;

*one, or a junta of several, totally unknown regime figure(s) (SNB?) come forward, do manage to get things in hand again with help of army, establish a milder form of dictatorship awaiting stabilisation, perhaps elections?

By: Bertrand

Bertrand — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 19:54:13 +0000

Hmmm.

All of the above, I think.

By: Brian

Brian — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 19:40:29 +0000

I like that chicken drop idea, like the grid where you bet on the final score of the Superbowl.

There’s also some other morbid ones:

all hell breaks loose, civil war, the Russian-backed guy wins (think Tajikistan)

all hell breaks loose, civil war, the Islamist guy wins

a coup, Karimov thrown in jail (this is along the lines of what Kayumars Turkistani suggested)

some long-shot ones:

Popular street protests in Independence Square in Tashkent lead to the exile of Karimov to Russia (Akayev style)

Free and fair elections are held, Karimov loses, but nullifies the election and puts the winner in jail (Burma style)

By: KZBlog

KZBlog — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 08:31:36 +0000

I’d put money on them copying Kazakhstan and giving him the right to run forever. The twist will be that they will ensure he never runs opposed!

By: Kayumars Turkistani

Kayumars Turkistani — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 02:34:54 +0000

I endorse this morbid betting pool.

I would like to add one more scenario: things really fall apart and some previously unknown military guy assumes “provisional leader” status. A long shot to be sure, but wouldn’t we all be embarrassed if not one of the scenarios matches up?

By: Nathan

Nathan — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 01:47:07 +0000

We could do it two ways. First would be for people to just pick a scenario. Second would be to buy a square representing a scenario (unknown to the purchaser), and the winner would be determined by “chicken drop” rules.

I really want to do this, if only for bragging rights or an amazon gift certificate or a “I won the Registan.net ‘Pick the President” contest, and all I got was this crappy mug/t-shirt/etc.” type dealy.

By: Brian

Brian — Thu, 30 Aug 2007 00:54:49 +0000

Shouldn’t there be some sort of betting going on for this? I mean you can place a bet on who you think will be the next U.S. president, but that’s way too predictable. The great thing about betting on what will happen next in Uzbekistan is that a beginner has just as much chance as being correct as a seasoned expert in the region.

Choices could be (but not limited to):

Gulnara (aka Googoosh)

NSS chief Inoyatov

Prime Minister Mirziyoyev

Finiance Minister Azimov

Oligarch Alisher Usmonov

Constitution is amended and Karimov runs for election (and wins!)

Constitution is amended and Karimov’s term is extended

Karimov is declared president for life (Turkmenbashi style)

Everyone pretends nothing happens, no election, Karimov stays

Karimov runs in a fair multiparty election and loses to an Erk or Free Peasants party candidate.

Hmmm, what else?