Comments on: Georgia: New Elections Coming January 5th

By: James

James — Sat, 10 Nov 2007 12:50:31 +0000

P.S. It now looks like the following will be the main candidates
- Saakashvili
- Davit Gamqrelidze (opposition New Right)
- Gia Maisashvili (opposition, popular among educated middle class but no-one else)
- As yet unspecified joint Republican-Conservative-Georgia’s Way-(Labour?) candidate
-…and Badri (who is nowhere near being the public hero he thinks he is)

By: James

James — Sat, 10 Nov 2007 12:44:51 +0000

I find it hard to have much sympathy for the opposition. Since the Rose Revolution they have spent most of their time on infighting rather than trying to build a solid coalition. They failed to do it for the local elections last year when they had plenty of time to prepare.

Furthermore, they never clearly explained their demands for parliamentary elections in April 08. Logically, waiting until autumn 08 would have been to their advantage – more time to form a coalition for parliament, more time to select and promote a joint presidential candidate and more time for Saakashvili to lose support. The problem is that Georgian parties are formed around egos, not policies, ideas or ideologies, so is virtually impossible for them to work together.

The formation of the coalition, the timing of the protests and their demand for April elections were simply determined by the interests of two individuals – Okruashvili and Patarkatsishvili. Now that those two are effectively out of the equation, their is little glue to hold the opposition coalition together, simply because it was founded on opportunism.

The opposition have had four years to prepare – they always know there was going to be elections some time in 2008 – but they have simply been too lazy to work for long-term dividends

By: Dan

Dan — Sat, 10 Nov 2007 00:15:55 +0000

I agree that this is a smart move by Saakashvili, and he’ll probably win in January. 2 things it’s important to remember:
– the main demand was for parliamentary elections, not presidential elections
– the opposition wanted elections in April; they’re being given them in January

So he arranges for a poll that happens too soon for the opposition to prepare, and in a way that will fracture the anti-Saakashvili vote. Meanwhile the government still holds the patronage and so on. When this is all over Saakashvili will have lost a lot of popularity and international leverage, but he’ll have almost as much domestic power as before.

By: jb

jb — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 23:09:29 +0000

To be honest, all I did tonight was run spreadsheets about importing mountain bikes and get lit at an expat bar. I’ll sound out the city tomorrow.

By: Nick

Nick — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 21:01:02 +0000

So presumably good Georgian children everywhere will awake on Orthodox Xmas morning and be disappointed that Santa didn’t bring them a new president.

By: James

James — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 15:54:25 +0000

Further to the above, here is some instant reaction from Georgia’s top chat forum. This (totally unscientific) poll asks which opposition party leader people would vote for – and the vote is pretty evenly split. It at least demonstrates the difficulty they are going to have if they want a single candidate.

http://forum.ge/?f=29&showtopic=33786162

Meanwhile, this polls shows 40 percent to Misha and 54 per cent to an unspecified joint opposition candidate, but that vote is likely to be split

http://forum.ge/?f=29&showtopic=33786165

By: jb

jb — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 15:49:41 +0000

Assuming the election is above board, I think he has a good chance of winning

That’s the snap take on the ground as well. But I’ve also heard previous supporters that I’ve talked to comparing him to Hitler today, so who knows.

Clearly, though, this is a gambit, and I don’t think it’s one that could possibly restore Saakashvili to a full mandate. His only strong point is that Badri is so incredibly reviled that he would have no hope of running himself. Otherwise, the opposition is fragmented and likely won’t be able to agree on a candidate.

By: James

James — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 15:41:43 +0000

It looks like Saakashvili has called the opposition’s bluff by calling a presidential election in January. The ten-party opposition coalition which formed around Patarkatsishvili’s cheque book is now going to implode under the effort of trying to find a joint candidate. The date also means that their best hope, Okruashvili, will not be eligible to stand as he will be too young – even if he was allowed back in the country.

Assuming the election is above board, I think he has a good chance of winning

By: Inkan1969

Inkan1969 — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 15:32:59 +0000

Will a Georgian president ever serve out a full term again? If only Saakashvili had responded to the initial protests with a compromise: He serves out his full term, but he calls snap parliamentary elections. Isn’t that the point of a parliament, to instantly change should the need arise? With that compromise, the opposition could’ve gained some credibility and organization skills, while Saakashvili could’ve maintained his reputation.