If Russia would agree to provide Kyrgyzstan with the money it would lose from closing the base (rent, jobs, aid, etc), I’m sure the Kyrgyz government would kick the Americans out.

Having lived in rural Kyrgyzstan (in addition to teaching at a university in Bishkek that wasn’t AUCA), I have experienced anti-American sentiment myself. Where in the world don’t you experience anti-American sentiment today? The worst anti-American sentiment I dealt with occurred not in Kyrgyzstan, but in Vietnam … from an aging hippy Australian who was still trying to relive his glory days protesting the Vietnam War.

I very much doubt the Kyrgyz government is acting in response to domestic pressure, more likely it is because of the upcoming SCO summit in Dushanbe. Russia and China have used the SCO before to put pressure on Kyrgyzstan to remove the American military.

In my experience, the average Kyrgyzstani just doesn’t care that much about the base. How would they rank this issue in importance when compared to issues like the killing & mistreatment of Kyrgyz workers in Russia, resolution of border disputes with China and Kazakhstan, or the size of the foreign debt owed to Russia? How many people would agree that the base should be closed if they knew how much money (and jobs) it brings to the local economy?

He told me that was significant angst toward the US, particularly aimed at Manas. I haven’t seen his field data yet, but the man is a very competent researcher and has no axe to grind – he is personally pro-American. So you might be surprised at the amount of real-live anti-Americanism that floats around Bishkek, particularly away from the US dollars flowing into AUCA or most American NGOs.

No one seems to have reliable information about what happened to Jill Metzger. There are a lot of wild, irresponsible rumors about the incident. In addition to the rumor that she ran off to have an abortion (in a country with an incredibly underfunded health system where acquiring HIV at a hospital is a real risk), there were also rumors that she ran off for a couple of days of wild sex with a Kyrgyz man or that she spent the entire time gambling in a casino.

The “tanker collision” happened while the planes were on the ground, so it happened at Manas, not near it.

The idea that the Kyrgyz “government is under growing domestic pressure” to get rid of the airbase gets repeated a lot in the Russian press, but the pressure is in fact coming from Moscow. Public protests against the airbase attract few people. One demonstration at the base which was covered by the local news stations attracted less than 20 people. Another rumor that gets floated around to incite opposition to the airbase is that the U.S. is planning on bombing Iran using planes based at Manas.

Some people think the Kyrgyz government wants to keep the American military around to counter Russia’s influence, and it simply uses these incidents to extract more money from the Americans.