There is a chance that Saakashvili was not baited, but planned some sort of “quick resolution” military strategy while most of the world’s eyes were elsewhere.

If he was baited, he’s a sucker, if he planned it, he’s a it evil. Either way, I’m taking him off my buddy list.

Kristy, you’re right. That would be the prudent thing to do. But I suspect they will not be prudent, and Saakashvili will cling to power for a few more months trying to play the brave patriot-victim. Which actually may or may not be good—I agree with you that Saakashvili is finished and will have to step down, but to do so too early would actually be disastrous for Georgia.

Colleen, I think you’re right, except for that last bullet point. I’d be surprised if anyone is held accountable or even tried for any of the war crimes that have been alleged. That is because we still don’t have independent verification of what happened in those areas. But in the end this war will amount to nothing, which is almost worse than if it had fostered some kind of fundamental change.

- all Georgian troops out of South Ossetia / Abkhazia

- Russian troops get our of Georgia proper, with some returning to South Ossetia / Abkhazia to resume their peacekeeping roles

- Peacekeeping is resumed under a “no tolerance policy”: any sort of Georgian provacations, including the disturbance of the local populations or arrest of Russian peacekeepers will bring Russian troops back into Georgia proper and Russian jets to the skies

- But, technically, South Ossetia / Abkhazia remain part of Georgia. Autonomous, independent regions

- The arrest and prosecution of military officers that lead the offensive that killed 2,000 Ossetian civilians for war crimes

The question, really, is whether or not the Russians – even after kicking out Saakashvili – will permit the democratic process to continue forward. I’d say no.