Comments on: Will Saakashvili Survive? http://registan.net/index.php/2008/08/28/will-saakashvili-survive/ All Central Asia, All The Time Fri, 25 May 2012 20:24:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: JTapp http://registan.net/index.php/2008/08/28/will-saakashvili-survive/comment-page-1/#comment-378146 JTapp Thu, 28 Aug 2008 20:26:25 +0000 http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/08/28/will-saakashvili-survive/#comment-378146 There is opposition to Saak, but any sentiment of "Russia is our protector" is definitely overstated in the quotes. Try going to Georgia and speaking only Russian, you'll learn people's attitudes toward the country real quick. Look at the mass demonstration outside Poti last week (the one with the odd protest signs in English). Georgia declared its independence from Russia as fast as it could. There are few people groups more nationalistic than Georgians. There is opposition to Saak, but any sentiment of “Russia is our protector” is definitely overstated in the quotes. Try going to Georgia and speaking only Russian, you’ll learn people’s attitudes toward the country real quick. Look at the mass demonstration outside Poti last week (the one with the odd protest signs in English). Georgia declared its independence from Russia as fast as it could. There are few people groups more nationalistic than Georgians.

]]> By: Ryan Erickson http://registan.net/index.php/2008/08/28/will-saakashvili-survive/comment-page-1/#comment-378141 Ryan Erickson Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:17:34 +0000 http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/08/28/will-saakashvili-survive/#comment-378141 It's good to remember that just a couple months before the war, there was broad opposition to Saakashvili--he was not popular. The riots in November of 2007 presented Saakashvili with the first real threat to his presidency. He didn't win the presidential election by a very large margin, and as it later turned out, the election itself was not fair (see my comment in "Recognition" http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/08/27/recognition/#comment-378136). After the elections, the opposition continued to organize protests, even going on hunger strikes and camping outside of Parliament, demanding that Saakashvili step down. Saakashvili was beginning to get fed up with them... It's not hard to see that one of the main reasons Saakashvili started the war in South Ossetia was that he knew it would unite the country around him--Georgians may hate Saakashvili, but they all hate Russia more when it invades their country. But Saakashvili obviously imagined a different outcome from the one we have know, one that probably involved direct Western involvement. If he had succeeded in returning S. Ossetia (and Abkhazia later, as evidence suggests), forcibly nonetheless, he would have been a decorated hero of Georgia. But now, his fate (should) lies in the hands of a confused and angry Georgia. We'll see. It’s good to remember that just a couple months before the war, there was broad opposition to Saakashvili–he was not popular. The riots in November of 2007 presented Saakashvili with the first real threat to his presidency. He didn’t win the presidential election by a very large margin, and as it later turned out, the election itself was not fair (see my comment in “Recognition” http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/08/27/recognition/#comment-378136).

After the elections, the opposition continued to organize protests, even going on hunger strikes and camping outside of Parliament, demanding that Saakashvili step down. Saakashvili was beginning to get fed up with them…

It’s not hard to see that one of the main reasons Saakashvili started the war in South Ossetia was that he knew it would unite the country around him–Georgians may hate Saakashvili, but they all hate Russia more when it invades their country.

But Saakashvili obviously imagined a different outcome from the one we have know, one that probably involved direct Western involvement. If he had succeeded in returning S. Ossetia (and Abkhazia later, as evidence suggests), forcibly nonetheless, he would have been a decorated hero of Georgia. But now, his fate (should) lies in the hands of a confused and angry Georgia. We’ll see.

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