Your premise seems to me at fault, you underestimate the russian nationalism. Nobody wept for Groznyj and the following ethnic cleansing of the Chechen homelands. Russia *chose* not to go allout on Georgia due to the implications abroad, but if they had gone all medieval I think very few Russians would have protested. Anyway, the point was that for the US to start rebuilding the Georgian armed forces again seems like throwing money out the window, because at the point where Georgia is approaching a level of threat to the russians, they will move in again.

As for the muslim threat, sure enough the problems in Ingushetia etc. are real for Russia. The point you do not see is that Iran, Pakistan etc. are also fighting the wahabi extremists. So supporting Iran is not equal to suporting the AQ elements that dream of the Caliphate, quite the opposite.

I agree that the best long term strategy for Russia is to seek peace, however, due to economical reasons. If they want to have a sustainable economy they must get their production levels up, start renewing their industry, etc. This is the carrot the west should offer the russians. But by arming Georgia, we are playing up to the very strong russian nationalism, giving them the choice between honour and money. I dont think Russia will choose money if forced to choose, rather they will turn towards China and be lost to the west.

Look, for centuries russians were superior military power mostly due to their great number. In 19th and 20th centruries russians were one of the most numerous nations in the World. Unfortunately, all this potential was lost in numerous conflicts with neighbors. Now russian population is declining with a faster rate than European population. Soon there will not be enough young men to serve in Army. So, the best strategy for Russia now is to seek peace with its neighbors.

As for muslim radicals, believe me, I know them and I know Chechens, Ingushs and Dagestanys well enough (I have some close friends) to tell you that regardsless whether thoese radicals are shii or sunny, russians for them are as bad and dirty as any other infidel. And if America is behind the Oceans, russians do not have such geographic indulgence and keeping those muslim radicals quiet is in the best interests of Russia. Russians must be least interested in Western failure in Iraq and Afghanistan.

On the point of the Russian forces being oldfashioned, absolutely, to a certain extent. There has been a large overhaul going on the last three years, especially in the airforce and the navy but also in the army itself. The combined arms movement in Georgia run pretty smoothly, loosing only 70 men in a blitz against US trained and Israeli armed regular forces in defensive positions does not seem like a big loss to me at all, rather it suggests a overwhelming win. The fact that the georgians paniced so totally that they didnt even bother to defend their staging area, Gori, is another indicator that the russians didnt even have to try, except for at the initial impact. To speculate: The georgians present the loss of a elite unit to the last man at a unidentified bridge north of Sishkavili, one could assume that this was initial contact and that many of the losses may have occured there.

I dont think the russkies could go one on one against the US forces, and fortunately they wont have to because the US is currently overdeployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now that the Pakistanis are seizing up, there is a very real possibility that the US will collapse in Afghanistan due to logistic choking, something the russians can take part of. If you doubt the guts of Vladimir Putin I think you are in for a surprise. Israel acknowledged this power by stopping arms-sales to Georgia well in advance of the war. And as usual, there is a failure to differentiate between muslims and muslims: The Kaukasian AQ are a problem for russia, sure, as are the chechens. Iran, on the other hand are close allies and so are Hezbollah. Shia – Sunni. Or even Wahabbi – Sufi, if you please. I think V. Putin may be very interested in payback for the Afghan wars, wouldnt you if the boots were on the other foot?

Human Rights in Georgia, February-March 2000, South Caucasian Human Rights Monitor, Part 3:

Discrimination on ethnic grounds:

Zoya Kodalova is one of the seven teachers of Secondary School No. 1 of the Town of Kareli…who were fired for “being of Ossetian origins and having an Ossetian family” on 4 March, 1991….

[Targamadze, head of Christian-Democratic Party] also said that Russia had been gradually preparing the ground for an invasion of Georgia, but he also partially put the blame on the Georgian authorities, saying that their rhetoric and policies had been “designed to finally reintegrate the Tskhinvali region into Georgia by using force.” Targamadze added that it was now “hard to prove that Georgia didn’t start the war.”

“It seems to me that Saakashvili was misled by someone telling him that the Russians would not intervene in Tskhinvali on condition that we would stop our active measures in respect of Abkhazia,” he told the daily Rezonansi. “That is my impression, because otherwise it is unclear how it was possible to fall into this trap if there were no guarantees that the Russians would not intervene.”

“Extensive propaganda is currently underway, blaming the catastrophic consequences [of the conflict] on everyone – an aggressive Russia, an ignorant West (which, it is claimed, ignored the Georgian leaders’ warnings); the opposition; Russian spies, etc. – everyone, but not the authorities themselves,” the letter reads.

Then it lists some questions, which the signatories say, should be answered by the authorities, including, why it happened that the Georgian side “despite the U.S. administration’s warnings, fell into the Russian trap.”

The letter blames the Georgian authorities for “the catastrophic consequences” and says that “the authorities, which have in fact prepared the ground for these consequences through its non-professionalism and anti-democracy, are now claiming that what has happened was impossible to prevent.”