That one comment says it all.So American Aid programs are not really about development its about creating and protecting American markets & goods.
No wonder the “selflessness “inspired reconstruction in Afghanistan is going no where.

Basically, Season 3 of The Wire (which is the extent of my counternarcotics expertise). Afghanistan as Hampsterdam.

Not sure I’m seriously advocating this, but NATO does need to get creative a la Major Colvin.

I think ethanol might be a great way to utilize even poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. But again, the double problems of regulation/enforcement and security rear their heads — they’d still get more money from smugglers, so without the ability to enforce appropriate growing standards it might end up being counterproductive.

BTW, what about other crops that can be transformed into biofule? Considering the problems with transporting fuel through Pakistan, Afghanistan should be the perfect place to go green in this respect …

Which begs the question of why the War on Drugs, a twentieth century phenomenon, should persist into the 21st.

“Blowback” mentions something key — domestic politics badly distorts the mission there and elsewhere, leading to lopsided policy choices.

With roses, the spoiling issue is a concern. It takes a LONG time on the roads to get a commodity like that to market — meanwhile, a convoy of refrigerated trucks carrying valuable cargo will be vulnerable to ambush and seizure by bandits or insurgents.

With saffron, the challeng is different: price. It would be difficult to harvest saffron on the scale needed to make a dent into opium profits without crashing the global price — something India in particular and probably China (the two primary sources of Saffron) will vigorously oppose.

I’m still of the opinion that local influence, combined with improved security, will improve the situation, and that focusing only on opium and quick ways to plug the hole won’t work out in the long run.

“Other goods like fruits that could make a decent proportion of the income opium produces would simply spoil before they get to any market.”

I think the best bet in this respect are roses http://www.asianews.it/view.php?l=en&art=1896
an saffron
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp060306.shtml
for international sales in combination with wheat for local markets.

I don’t think that’s a bad idea — certainly more serious than what I discussed in the post. But I’m not convinced Afghanistan has the regulatory, and definitely not the economic, environment in which that plan could work.

Again, it comes down to incentives. First off, our own government agencies are limited in what kinds of alternative crops we can provide—USAID, for example, cannot help farmers grow cotton or wheat in place of opium because of rules enacted in the Farm Bill in the U.S. So after two years, unless the farmers can get their hands on re-capitalized crop seed, they’d be in trouble.

Secondly, there is the challenge of infrastructure. Heroin packs a ton of value into a very small amount of volume, and it doesn’t spoil easily. Other goods like fruits that could make a decent proportion of the income opium produces would simply spoil before they get to any market. Khost province faces that problem all the time, and it’s much closer to markets in Pakistan.

So, while I think that could possibly be a “final push” solution of sorts once other factors are in place, I don’t think it would work right now.

As you said, growing poppies must become unattractive. If after those first 2 years you are a farmer with enough money to last your family for the next 5 years, knowing that growing poppies again might lead you to prison and your crops destroyed, wouldn’t it be an easy choice to instead go for wheat, roses or whatever else grows on your soil?

Even if this plan only eliminates 40% of the Talibans financing for the next 5 years, this would be a major blow to them. Add the weakening of all the drug gangs and war lords and it’s well worth the price …