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	<title>Comments on: Debating Rubin and Rashid</title>
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	<description>All Central Asia, All The Time</description>
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		<title>By: JustPlainDave</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/comment-page-1/#comment-378733</link>
		<dc:creator>JustPlainDave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Oct 2008 18:24:29 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The Rubin and Rashid paper is now up on the &lt;i&gt;Foreign Affairs&lt;/i&gt; website: &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20081001faessay87603/barnett-r-rubin-ahmed-rashid/from-great-game-to-grand-bargain.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Rubin and Rashid paper is now up on the <i>Foreign Affairs</i> website: <a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20081001faessay87603/barnett-r-rubin-ahmed-rashid/from-great-game-to-grand-bargain.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Foust</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/comment-page-1/#comment-378684</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua Foust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 2008 02:50:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/#comment-378684</guid>
		<description>Laurence, fair enough, but in your first comment you practically blamed Rubin for Andijon. That is ridiculous. Either prove causation, or don&#039;t poison the well.

There are many things to discuss in the Rubin/Rashid paper (Rashid tends to be breathless, I agree). Rubin&#039;s secret culpability for the massacre of 750 people, however, is not.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Laurence, fair enough, but in your first comment you practically blamed Rubin for Andijon. That is ridiculous. Either prove causation, or don&#8217;t poison the well.</p>
<p>There are many things to discuss in the Rubin/Rashid paper (Rashid tends to be breathless, I agree). Rubin&#8217;s secret culpability for the massacre of 750 people, however, is not.</p>
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		<title>By: laurence</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/comment-page-1/#comment-378673</link>
		<dc:creator>laurence</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Oct 2008 20:27:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/#comment-378673</guid>
		<description>Josh, I don&#039;t think a reference to a track record is an ad hominem attack. If a batter bats 100, he&#039;s not as good as one who bats 300.  That&#039;s not personal, it&#039;s empirical. How credible is the source? How realistic are the forecasts? And if forecasts are wrong, maybe the theoretical approaches are flawed, or the analyst is missing something, likewise not a personal attack. Personally, I think there needs to be more scrutiny of the work of people like Rubin (and Lubin). If the influence is based on erroneous assumptions--well, maybe they shouldn&#039;t have more influence? 

Nothing personal. 

And I&#039;m crediting you with raising important issues because it is now some eight years after 9/11 and everything is going downhill--yet your voice has been one of sanity, of raising important questions, not culpability for anything...at a time when others were just repeating the conventional wisdom...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Josh, I don&#8217;t think a reference to a track record is an ad hominem attack. If a batter bats 100, he&#8217;s not as good as one who bats 300.  That&#8217;s not personal, it&#8217;s empirical. How credible is the source? How realistic are the forecasts? And if forecasts are wrong, maybe the theoretical approaches are flawed, or the analyst is missing something, likewise not a personal attack. Personally, I think there needs to be more scrutiny of the work of people like Rubin (and Lubin). If the influence is based on erroneous assumptions&#8211;well, maybe they shouldn&#8217;t have more influence? </p>
<p>Nothing personal. </p>
<p>And I&#8217;m crediting you with raising important issues because it is now some eight years after 9/11 and everything is going downhill&#8211;yet your voice has been one of sanity, of raising important questions, not culpability for anything&#8230;at a time when others were just repeating the conventional wisdom&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Foust</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/comment-page-1/#comment-378666</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua Foust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Oct 2008 11:20:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/#comment-378666</guid>
		<description>For the record, I reject any association of culpability with the Rubin-Lubin report, even if (at the time) he had adopted a rather &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/05/18/opinion/edrubin.php&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Murray-ian approach&lt;/a&gt; to the subject.

I raise questions here because I think it&#039;s important to be thinking about ways of engaging Afghanistan and Pakistan to end the crisis there, but I don&#039;t know how. I don&#039;t see how their plan would work, but it might, and THAT conversation needs to happen. That is why I raise questions.

But Laurence, you will not use this comment thread as a referendum on either. Like them or not, they carry a tremendous amount of influence -- debating the merits of their ideas is far more constructive than resorting to ad hominem attacks and poisoning the well.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the record, I reject any association of culpability with the Rubin-Lubin report, even if (at the time) he had adopted a rather <a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/05/18/opinion/edrubin.php" rel="nofollow">Murray-ian approach</a> to the subject.</p>
<p>I raise questions here because I think it&#8217;s important to be thinking about ways of engaging Afghanistan and Pakistan to end the crisis there, but I don&#8217;t know how. I don&#8217;t see how their plan would work, but it might, and THAT conversation needs to happen. That is why I raise questions.</p>
<p>But Laurence, you will not use this comment thread as a referendum on either. Like them or not, they carry a tremendous amount of influence &#8212; debating the merits of their ideas is far more constructive than resorting to ad hominem attacks and poisoning the well.</p>
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		<title>By: Laurence</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/comment-page-1/#comment-378665</link>
		<dc:creator>Laurence</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Oct 2008 10:06:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/#comment-378665</guid>
		<description>Barnett Rubin was an author of &quot;Calming the Ferghana Valley&quot;--a US policy paper that recommended strategies eventually leading to the Andijan violence of 2005, IMHO (though I&#039;m sure he and his co-authors would deny any responsibility). Rashid likewise has a better track record describing the horrors of the Taliban than forecasting, as far as I can tell.

Therefore, I&#039;d be interested in what the experts who read Registan have to say about their Foreign Affairs article. Josh is certainly right to raise questions.  Based on past experience, I would take anything either of them has to say with a grain of salt...I&#039;m glad Josh is raising this issue.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Barnett Rubin was an author of &#8220;Calming the Ferghana Valley&#8221;&#8211;a US policy paper that recommended strategies eventually leading to the Andijan violence of 2005, IMHO (though I&#8217;m sure he and his co-authors would deny any responsibility). Rashid likewise has a better track record describing the horrors of the Taliban than forecasting, as far as I can tell.</p>
<p>Therefore, I&#8217;d be interested in what the experts who read Registan have to say about their Foreign Affairs article. Josh is certainly right to raise questions.  Based on past experience, I would take anything either of them has to say with a grain of salt&#8230;I&#8217;m glad Josh is raising this issue.</p>
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		<title>By: Graham Marley</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/comment-page-1/#comment-378646</link>
		<dc:creator>Graham Marley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:24:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/index.php/2008/10/15/debating-rubin-and-rashid/#comment-378646</guid>
		<description>Josh, this comment is more inquiry than opinion, as I&#039;m not nearly well versed enough of any of this, but would love to hear your thoughts. 

I can&#039;t help wondering, with so many things going on at once, do these points brought up rely on some &quot;dust settling&quot; to take place before they can be explored with a little less speculation? I think it&#039;s at least noteworthy that  while the Pakistani government is undergoing changes, the U.S. is also in an election process. Until both governments fall into stride with their changes in of themselves, predicting how the two will interface is way beyond my foresight. I&#039;m biting my tongue here, because I know the rules here on presidential politics, but I think you know what I&#039;m driving at.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Josh, this comment is more inquiry than opinion, as I&#8217;m not nearly well versed enough of any of this, but would love to hear your thoughts. </p>
<p>I can&#8217;t help wondering, with so many things going on at once, do these points brought up rely on some &#8220;dust settling&#8221; to take place before they can be explored with a little less speculation? I think it&#8217;s at least noteworthy that  while the Pakistani government is undergoing changes, the U.S. is also in an election process. Until both governments fall into stride with their changes in of themselves, predicting how the two will interface is way beyond my foresight. I&#8217;m biting my tongue here, because I know the rules here on presidential politics, but I think you know what I&#8217;m driving at.</p>
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