Remember when the Tulip Revolution took place, and Akaev’s corrupt, kleptocratic, strong-arm government was replaced by Bakiev’s shiny, happy, fun-time government? Well, if you missed it, it was great. Unfortunately, Bakiev’s government of truth and beauty has been replaced by the diabolically corrupt and autocratic leader Bakiev. How long will the Krygyz people endure under such horrible government? When will they rise up and throw off the chains of their oppressors, or at least complain a little?
Personally, I think these are the wrong questions. And certainly they are questions without answers. A better question – when will the next revolution be? Perhaps soon. Will the government that replaces Bakiev be that different? Probably not, I think. And don’t count Bakiev out, yet – he has his own skill set to utilize. The problem is that the opposition is part of the same game, and their side of the game seems to be equally corrupt. If I might speculate…
Pretend you are a young Kyrgyzstani [Kyrgyz, Uzbek, or Russian] and you have been infected with the idea that the best way to save your country is to go into politics. If you’re Uzbek, you’d better stick to city management, and stay in the south. If you’re Russian, you’re going to have to stick to the north, and understand that there is always going to be an ethnic Kyrgyz placed over you. If you’re Kyrgyz, keep in mind that who you know isn’t nearly as important as who knows you. I would argue that one distinction of post-Soviet politics is the fact that “mafia” can be used as a synonym for “government.” What criminals are more organized than the kind in city hall?
So, this young, ambitious Kyrgyz guy wants to make changes, and to do that he must rise to power. Getting out the vote is not cheap, and opposition members will not be bound by the same high deals this man, let’s call him Adilet, wants to take to the high office. Assuming Adilet is well-educated, ambitious, and high-minded, where is the money going to come from? If he really is that skilled, won’t he look for work elsewhere? So Adilet goes and gets a job working in Minsk, lives in his flat with his lovely Belarussian bride, and never gets onto the Kyrgyzstani political scene. That leaves his cousin Jyrgal, almost as smart, more ambitious, and willing to do what’s necessary to get what he wants. Let’s use our imaginations and see Jyrgal, older, richer, and more world wise about where his bread is buttered. He’s learned that the dog that doesn’t stick his nose in other people’s business keeps his nose. Business and money are absolutely connected with politics in the post-Soviet world, and it seems every businessman has his connections to some politician, and vice versa.
And that’s enough of my rant. We’ll see what happens as the weather warms up in Kyrgyzstan, and see if people bring their yurts to the square in Bishkek. [Updated, thanks Karl for the link!] Or will they not have a place for their yurts??
This post was written by...
Michael Hancock-Parmer – author of 158 posts on Registan.net.
Michael earned an MA in Central Eurasian Studies in 2011 and remains a student at Indiana University pursuing a dual PhD in Russian History and Central Eurasian Studies. He served 6 months in the Peace Corps in Uzbekistan in 2005. After the events in Andijan and the subsequent closure of the program, he served 2 years in southern Kazakhstan, returning to the Midwest in 2007. His general area of interest is on post-Timur Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, centered on the Syr Darya river valley.
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{ 12 comments }
Just read something that you can file under the “may mean something, may not” category. Apparently, Ala-Too Square is undergoing reconstruction during the month of March. So it looks like the primo demonstration spot in Bishkek is all tied up. Coincidence?
http://eng.24.kg/bishkek24/2009/03/12/7354.html
That’s a realistic but pessimistic view.
A more hopeful view might be that a young female author born and raised in Kyrgyzstan, educated in Europe and returned home might get some public attention for hosting a popular TV programme for children. She then becomes an advocate of early education and runs for mayor of her small city. Soon she is elevated to Oblast Akim and what do you know…
She keeps honest throughout, always mentioning to reporters the values that she carries from her childhood and from reading books of Chingiz ota…
i think it is hard to say with confidence what will happen.
but not surprised that Ala-too will undergo reconstruction during march. it is not coincidence but well-planned strategy to struggle against opposition. won’t be surprised if there will more similiar strategies during march and april.
as for shohmurod’s view, it is not possible. good wish thought.
can not say that kg’s future is bright with what we have today and with such spirits among common population.
though try to stay optimistic about future.
I know the Kyrgyz, they are very religious and patriarchal. The hate their minorities.
I am from Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzes are crazy. Most of them dont have any education and are just simple thiefs. They dont work, trying to steal from those who does.
Russians built all the town, and have to leave the country because of religious descrimination lately.
Kyrgyzes hate uzbeks too. Something racials.
Again, kyrgyz people dont make anything, dont work and have education 5-6 grades, when other nations in country actually study and work.
For last couple years kyrgyz borroed from Russian couple million dollars, and from Turkey too. Now when usa airforce base in country is closed, kyrgyz thinking where else to get money…
very stupid nation who got down from mountains about 5 years ago, to the town that was built by other people, and so kyrgyz declared that town was built by them.
I hate kyrgyz.
Well, the odds have certainly been raised by developments over the past few days. I think that you may be oversimplifying the government vs. opposition dynamic. In fact, until Sadyrkulov’s death a few days ago, the most likely form of concrete dissent might have come from within the governing Ak Zhol party itself.
Either way, the next few weeks will be very interesting to watch closely.
@ Ekspeditsya
I think you’re absolutely right. The fact is that the situation is definitely beyond me, and I’m trying to gauge the broader themes until I have a better handle on the specific actors. Kyrgyzstan has never been my strong suit. I’ve wondering whether I should update the post to include the murders/car accident, or just start a fresh post. Probably the latter.
I think your comments about the exclusion of ethnic Russians from high government positions might be a bit outdated now. Definitely, in the past, officials were being replaced with ethnic Kyrgyz using the excuse that the previous office holder didn’t speak the state language (Kyrgyz). Now, however, the Prime Minister is an ethnic Russian who can’t speak Kyrgyz. Bakiev, Kulov, and the opposition have all made trips to Moscow looking for support. Ethnic Russians like Knyazev and Bondarets are suddenly popping up in the local media offering their “well-known expert opinions” that are extremely anti-American. [They even have their own websites.] It’s difficult not to conclude that Bakiev has sold his country to Russia. He’s desperate to stay in power, and I think the American government isn’t willing to prop up his government. Russia is the obvious choice for someone looking to make a deal with the devil. And, I’m sure Moscow feels more comfortable with a few ethnic Russians in key positions.
Most people there are politically passive. It’s hard to blame them, in a way, given how the last “revolution” turned out. They just changed one bad guy for a different bad guy, with some rioting and instability thrown in. In the absence of real leadership in a political alternative, why should they risk more violence and instability? And, with Russian tv being a dominant source of news in the country, the average Kyrgyzstani loves Putin.
I have to admit that Kulov is the exact example I had in mind when I was thinking of Russians being the number twos in the country. The Zheltoqsan mess in Kazakhstan should be educational – the titular nationalities of the former Union Republics were basically promised leadership by their own, as long as a Russian held the number two spot. I think you’re right that the average Kyrgyzstani might love Putin, but who are we talking about? There is no more an average Kyrgyzstani that represents everyone than a ‘Joe the plumber’ type that can represent most Americans. It’s difficult to generalize, though I’m sure you’re not suggesting anything like that.
However, I still think that Kulov being the prime minister proves nothing – especially when looking at the history of Kyrgyziya SSR.
Uh, I am not sure if I am misreading you, but Kulov is neither the prime minister nor Russian, although he is certainly very russified.
Also, I am not sure that this problem is overstated, not to say misstated, somewhat. What poses far more potential for unrest in my view is the fact that not a single ethnic Uzbek, as far as I know, is represented in the Kyrgyz parliament, when that minority represents a far larger role than the Russians.
I was referring to the current PM, Chudinov, who is an ethnic Russian. Kulov, a former PM, was part of the Bakiev-Kulov “tandem”. After Kulov and the rest of the opposition failed to unseat Bakiev (in spring 2007), Kulov took a trip to Moscow and came back advocating for Kyrgyzstan to enter into a union or federation of some sort with Russia.
I think the return of ethnic Russians to high positions is a turnaround from Bakiev’s previous nationalistic posturing. All of his previous PM’s (before Chudinov) have been ethnic Kyrgyz. Chudinov was appointed AFTER Bakiev consolidated his power in a constitutional referendum and parliamentary elections, both of which were disputed.
When I said “average Kyrgyzstani”, what I meant was an overwhelming majority of the citizens of Kyrgyzstan (regardless of ethnicity), love Putin.
Ethnic Uzbeks are well-represented in the south, and yes, the potential for conflict is there, but they don’t have any outside support. Also, ethnic Kyrgyz labor migrants are being harassed and sometimes killed in Russia. If Russia mobilizes the Russian diaspora in Kyrgyzstan and ethnic Russians start to occupy significant positions of power again, this could stoke existing feelings of resentment and lead to ethnic conflict. The fact that the Russian Ambassador felt a need to address this is an indication of the potential conflict. ( http://eng.24.kg/community/2009/02/17/7105.html )
There’s a good opinion piece in the Moscow Times about Kyrgyzstan titled “The Russia of Central Asia”. The piece does, however, have one glaring error — the “Tulip Revolution” took place in 2005, not 2003. http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/375369.htm
tictoc: I am not sure I share these fears, since even Russia is a little too sophisticated to deploy its leverage over Kyrgyzstan by enforcing influence via ethnic brethren. But the very real spell that Moscow has put Bishkek is pretty terrifying and it is depressing to to reflect on the accuracy of Ryzhkov’s article, which you link.
Actually, I have to correct myself on there being no ethnic Uzbeks in the Kyrgyz parliament, by the way. Ernest Akramov is, at least according to the parliament site, an ethnic Uzbek. The representation of this ethnic groups still remains completely out of synch with the proportion of the Uzbek population, not to speak of their influence in business and society in broad areas of the south.