Comments on: Tajikistan Slowly Collapses. Or Not. http://registan.net/index.php/2009/03/17/tajikistan-slowly-collapses-or-not/ Central Asia News -- All Central Asia, All The Time Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:53:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Ekspeditsya http://registan.net/index.php/2009/03/17/tajikistan-slowly-collapses-or-not/comment-page-1/#comment-379795 Ekspeditsya Tue, 17 Mar 2009 16:03:50 +0000 http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/03/17/tajikistan-slowly-collapses-or-not/#comment-379795 Tajikistan Stability Enhancement Program is a pretty ridiculously grand sounding title for something with a three-year budget of $7.1 million. Even in Tajikistan that won't buy much, and the sum is risible compared to the kinds of money that the World Bank shells out there on just the kinds of things envisaged by this vanity project. The debate about whether Tajikistan is on the verge of collapse or not is pretty academic. It is essentially already collapsed in all practical respects; no public service operates anywhere near satisfactory levels, while anyone with two brain cells to rub together has either left the country or managed to wangle a job with a Western NGO, company or diplomatic section. I suppose that if by collapse we take it to mean descent into rioting, looting, and civil war, perhaps the answer is that there is no strong incentive for any of these options. Also, it is not necessarily wise to read too much into the short-term economic analysis approach adopted by Falkowski (links don't work, by the way) since production always drops in the Dec-Jan period due to the fact that they can't generate enough electricity. The issue of power is bad enough as it is, but a recent article appearing on Ferghana.ru really told the story about what is so tragically stupid in the government's handling of the problem. An enterprising local businessman in the Sughd region, the worst-affected region for electricity shortages, decided to build his own mini-hydropower plant, which he used to supply his shopping mall and to sell power to residential customers in the town. But as a local "expert" Hayrullo Mirsaidova told Ferghana.ru: "In Sughd, lot of people are willing to build a similar mini-hydropower plants, but local authorities do not always encourage the initiative of ordinary citizens. There have been cases where tax officials have forced the owners of such mini-hydropower plants to destroy these important facilities. Moreover, such initiatives are not to the liking of representatives from the Barki Tojik state energy holding company, which currently has the monopoly on production and sale of electricity: it does not need the competition." See here for the entire article (in Russian) plus cool picture: http://www.ferghana.ru/news.php?id=11487&mode=snews The last time I looked, Sughd region was one of the last regions in Tajikistan under the power-rationing regime that has been the bane of so many people's life over the winter months. If this isn't a country that has not collapsed to all intents and purposes, then I don't what is. Tajikistan Stability Enhancement Program is a pretty ridiculously grand sounding title for something with a three-year budget of $7.1 million. Even in Tajikistan that won’t buy much, and the sum is risible compared to the kinds of money that the World Bank shells out there on just the kinds of things envisaged by this vanity project.
The debate about whether Tajikistan is on the verge of collapse or not is pretty academic. It is essentially already collapsed in all practical respects; no public service operates anywhere near satisfactory levels, while anyone with two brain cells to rub together has either left the country or managed to wangle a job with a Western NGO, company or diplomatic section.
I suppose that if by collapse we take it to mean descent into rioting, looting, and civil war, perhaps the answer is that there is no strong incentive for any of these options.
Also, it is not necessarily wise to read too much into the short-term economic analysis approach adopted by Falkowski (links don’t work, by the way) since production always drops in the Dec-Jan period due to the fact that they can’t generate enough electricity.
The issue of power is bad enough as it is, but a recent article appearing on Ferghana.ru really told the story about what is so tragically stupid in the government’s handling of the problem.
An enterprising local businessman in the Sughd region, the worst-affected region for electricity shortages, decided to build his own mini-hydropower plant, which he used to supply his shopping mall and to sell power to residential customers in the town.
But as a local “expert” Hayrullo Mirsaidova told Ferghana.ru:

“In Sughd, lot of people are willing to build a similar mini-hydropower plants, but local authorities do not always encourage the initiative of ordinary citizens. There have been cases where tax officials have forced the owners of such mini-hydropower plants to destroy these important facilities. Moreover, such initiatives are not to the liking of representatives from the Barki Tojik state energy holding company, which currently has the monopoly on production and sale of electricity: it does not need the competition.”

See here for the entire article (in Russian) plus cool picture: http://www.ferghana.ru/news.php?id=11487&mode=snews

The last time I looked, Sughd region was one of the last regions in Tajikistan under the power-rationing regime that has been the bane of so many people’s life over the winter months.
If this isn’t a country that has not collapsed to all intents and purposes, then I don’t what is.

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