Secondly, where is the Afghani Taliban’s stated goal to take over Pakistan? The leader of the Political Committee gave an interview on Al-Jazeera a few weeks ago, and not once did he mention anything about trying to take over Pakistan.

Rob, when I said it’s “much worse,” I was referring to the discussion of Pakistan’s cultural and social complexity. Even with the Pashtun areas, it’s not a black and white thing — ESPECIALLY considering how many Taliban are not actually foreign to the area. As for Ms. Zehab, she’s right that the groups there complain about the U.S. presence in the area. It’s much easier than complaining that their stated goal, establishing an Islamist state, also happens to require removing the Pakistani government, in addition to the U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Like I said, it’s much more complex than “U.S. = bad,” even if the U.S. having a terrible reputation is a major issue. But it is only one of the many issues driving the militancy. I should have expanded on that more.

Myra, I agree to a certain extent, that the militancy reaching formerly safe areas is a cause for concern. But again, I’d say it’s much more complex than that. There has been militancy in the Punjab and in Sindh for many years, well before the U.S. ever was an issue. In the 1990s, it was focused around the mujahirs and the Shias… it just found a different focus.

Again, the point I’m arguing here, which doesn’t quite fit nicely into a short-ish blog post, is that there is tremendous complexity to the militancy that simply is not a part of the narrative—including that it’s only a problem when there are bombs in Lahore.

And I do think the offensive will have an impact, in a positive direction. The militants badly overstretched themselves, and I really hope that the momentum continues. I think the Pakistani government got sick and tired of their activities, and there seems far less patience in the Pakistan’s public consciousness for the militancy as well. It’s not longer seen as just a Pashtun problem, so there is much more support for addressing it head on.

It was precisely because Islamabad and Lahore are relatively prosperous and stable that it was so alarming when the violence spread into Punjab. (Superimpose the photos of the Marriott burning on your picture of Islamabad’s skyline and you get the point.) Also if you attack cricket in that part of the world (as happened with the attack on the Sri Lankan team) you are introducing a whole new element that was not there before.

So while I agree with you that Pakistan is far more complicated and richer culturally than it is often given credit for, would like to see your thoughts on how this fits into the situation in Punjab.

Do you think the offensive against the Taliban, and the new public mood against them, will have a major impact on (latent) support for militancy in Punjab?

Myra

But when you say “its much worse,” what are you basing this on? Have you been to the actual parts of Af-Pak where the violence is taking place? If so, how much time have you spent there? And have you talked to people from groups that we are fighting, ie the Taliban and groups that are affiliated with them in Pakistan?

Mariam Abu Zehab, a French expert on Afghanistan and Pakistan, has spent extensive time in these regions and met with most of the leaders of these groups. Her conclusions about the situation in Af-Pak, outlined in this recent interview (below), differ from what you are saying.

http://islamyoon.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=ArticleA_C&cid=1239888988333&pagename=Islamyoun%2FIYALayout&ref=body

She doesn’t see the Taliban in the terms that you do. She also seems to suggest that it is the US presence that is the problem, not the solution. Ie the US presence is what is exacerbating recent violence.
Rob