I agree with learning about another country before pointing fingers and forming opinions. Thank you for posting these news tidbits. Have you heard of Asia Chronicle News? They’ve been blogging about the situation in Afghanistan as well. Worth a read I think. http://www.asiachroniclenews.com

Were the Taliban that Italy was paying attacking the GIRoA, ANA and ANP? Or were they really organized crime that were calling themselves Taliban?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6875376.ece

I seem to remember a lack of enthusiasm on this site for the fine art of bribery, but perhaps it does have a certain effectiveness after all?

The Russians have been helpful in some ways, unhelpful in others… but there are always a few IL-76′s, AN-12′s and sometimes AN-124′s on Afghanistan’s runways, adding to the airlift capability. Afghans do not really trust Russians nor do they speak very highly of them, and NATO isn’t particularly interested in having Russian troops in Afghanistan. The Poles are often referred to as “Russians” where they work, and it’s not helpful to them.

India is a tricky subject because Pakistan is so nervous about Indian assistance to Afghanistan. Afghans and all of the Coalition partners are very grateful for the help, but with the Pakistanis so paranoid about Indian involvement, it’s a fine line to walk. It is my understanding that India is the third largest contributor to Afghan redevelopment efforts.

Out west, Iran actually makes contributions to infrastructure development. Partly because of markets, but I’m sure they are interested in increasing their influence. We have also seen some ill-intentioned Iranian exports. Iran is, again, a somewhat touchy subject. Many are suspicious of their intentions, even the infrastructure projects, but the Iranians have opportunities to make positive contributions.

By restraint, I mean continuing to show restraint in regards to Pakistani (ISI/LeT) attempts to blow them up, both in Afghanistan and with attacks such as Mumbai. The Indian government, while calling the ball as they saw it, refrained from excessive saber rattling against Pakistan as a nation. That is the type of restraint that I am talking about… and it’s a hard thing to remain so when consistently attacked. It is just another example that this is not a discrete war in a single country, but a true Type-3 insurgency, with international and potentially global effects.

Figured out FP = Force Protection.

“I don’t see the international community cutting off aid, either.” This is not my observation. Recently Congress cut $900 million off of the ANSF aid appropriation that Obama requested. It will probably get added back in conference. But the point is that the Afghans aren’t getting nearly enough in long term aid pledges. China isn’t giving nearly enough, even though they are Afghanistan’s largest trading and investment partner. Why is India not giving more than $1.2 billion to Afghanistan? India has given more aid to Bhutan than to Afghanistan. Japan’s new PM has said he will increase Japan’s aid contribution. Japan needs to be doing far more.

The peace movement in many countries is demanding that foreign aid to Afghanistan be reduced, especially aid to the ANSF. If anyone can persuade the international community to give more foreign aid and civilian advisors to Afghanistan, it is President Obama. He has an hypnotic affect on many non Americans, especially young foreigners. He needs to use his bully pulpit. One example on how he could do this is with respect to Indonesia.

Obama is stunningly popular in Indonesia right now; most Indonesia in the most recent Pew survey wanted Indonesia to do more to fight terrorism than it currently is. Obama should go to Indonesia and ask its parliament and people in public to send ten thousand civilian advisers to Afghanistan over the next decade. {An annual steady state strength of perhaps 3,000 if each civilian adviser spends an average of three years in Afghanistan.}

Big Blue wrote “I hope that India practices restraint and continues to do good things here in Afghanistan. The contribution is appreciated.” How would you define restraint? Specifically what more do you think India should do to assist Afghanistan? I am concerned that India and many other countries are free riding off American blood and treasure. If the US were not so committed to Afghanistan, India (and Russia, China, Iran and the Stans) would be contributing far more to Afghanistan. Why isn’t President Obama publicly calling them out on it? If he did, it would likely result in a more assistance for Afghanistan.

#4 can be accomplished by relaxing the FP and getting out to supervise and/or oversee the projects they are paying for. It also means no paying up front; only when a milestone is met, and less if it is not met on time.

He’s not talking about the war that I’m in, and he’s right, because I said he could have the last word and I’m sticking to that and not replying to that line any further. Has nothing to do with Afghanistan.

There are lots of Afghan NGO’s, and some of them are taking lead roles with INGO’s taking supporting roles. I haven’t seen a ton of resentment among the ANSF towards NGO’s and have never heard a civilian complaint about them. That is not definitive; I don’t ask about them a whole lot. But I have seen a large Afghan NGO presence, with plans to increase this.

I don’t see the international community cutting off aid, either.

BTW, my sympathies for the attack on the Indian Embassy. I know that the greatest loss of life was Afghan, but this is the second time in a year that the Indian Embassy has been targeted by an SVBIED, and there was loss of life. The Pakistanis are very concerned that India is the third largest international contributor of aid to Afghanistan, and so things like this happen. I hope that India practices restraint and continues to do good things here in Afghanistan. The contribution is appreciated.

As for the last question; yes, in my opinion we are overly FOB-bound. That is more of a security issue. You cannot provide security for local people if you cede the night to the enemy, and in many places, we do. I see that changing. I see a lot of things changing. It appears that GEN McChrystal is no joke, and it’s not just words, but he will enforce his tactical directives. Why have we not seen that so far? Because the General understands change. He issues a directive, gives a method to train to that standard, gives time to train and begin to change, and then begins to enforce his directive through supervision and, if necessary, changes in personnel. That takes time, so when the General hasn’t been here for much over three months, he’s gotten a ton done.

You get the news media perspective of the Afghan perspective. We get the unfiltered Afghan perspective. The majority of Afghans are sick of some of our behaviors, like driving behaviors, but their worst fear is us leaving.

“Multiple subcontracting” is caused by excessive Congressional oversight and regulation; which can only be satisfied by some large companies with lots of lawyers. Ending the regulation designed to limit “corruption” and letting PRTs and GIs spend the money directly with limited Congressional Oversight would help.

Civilian rotations should be handled the way Petraeus is handling military rotations. Designate someone to Afghanistan for many years (4 years or more), and rotate them back and forth between their base and Afghanistan. When not in Afghanistan, they still study Afghanistan.

“1) Disband the PRTs, replace them with joint Afghan/NATO security units,” I disagree. Improve the PRTs. Hire more civilians (including with NGO experience), nonWestern professionals (Chinese, Indonesian, Indian, Malaysian etc.) to work in them. Transfer the PRTs and their reconstruction money to the ANSF chain of command (ANA Corps and brigades initially; Provincial Governor and ANP when they are ready for the responsibility.) Super embed ISAF augmented advisory headquarters and units into ANSF headquarters and units in the short run. {colocated C2 facilities with a shared “Common Operating Picture” comprising shared “Situational and Positional Awareness” between ANA and the ISAF}

“2) Increase donations to NGOs and NSPs substantially,” Hasn’t the over reliance on the NGO industrial complex been one of the problems in Afghanistan. There is anti NGO sentiment among Afghans, including the GIRoA and ANSF. BTW, Shannon, NGOs are viewed negatively by many developing country governments and establishments. I have observed quite a bit of hostility towards NGOs from the Indian government, establishment, and civil society. Indian NGOs don’t call themselves NGOs to avoid the stigma.

Shouldn’t the objective be to increase Afghan capacity, or the capacity of Afghan civilian agencies? In some parts of Afghanistan this means Afghan NGOs even though this causes resentment among other Afghans; but not everywhere.

“3) Relax FP rules for contractors,” What does FP mean?
“4) Limit sub-contracting and put heavy failure to perform penalties in major contracts” How would this be enforced? It might be better to simply empower local PRTs to spend reconstruction money at their own discretion.

Ex 18A 10/9/2009 at 6:16 pm, what does this mean?: “The war’s over folks.” As long as the ANSF gets funding, this war will not be over. The ANSF might yield the South and parts of the East, but would fight hard in the rest of the country. Keep in mind that the ANA is more popular and respected among Pashtu Afghans than the Taliban. Among the 62% of Afghans that are not Pashtu, even you would concede that there is no competition.

Why do you think the ANSF will lose Afghanistan as a whole? Is it because you think the international community will cut off foreign aid to Afghanistan?