WILL CENTRAL ASIA TURN TO THE WEST?
Yuri Sigov, specially for CA-NEWS

The upcoming Kazakhstan’s chairmanship of the OSCE as well as Nabucco project will give a new impetus to a closer cooperation of Central Asian states and the West.

Thus, a number of European countries (Germany, UK, France) already have special programs of cooperation with the five countries of the region.

Other EU members by means of establishing partnership with Kazakhstan, future chair of the OSCE, are planning to substantively strengthen their presence in Central Asia, which they perceive as important and advantageous trade and economic “spring-board” to reach China.

Although membership in CIS, EurAsEC, and CSTO will compel senior officials of the Central Asian states to continue visiting each other in the coming years and convince their citizens and themselves that they are necessary, all of them would like to “lean against” the Western partners and Western organizations.

The presidents of Central Asian states quite regularly (except for special traditions of behavior of Uzbek and Turkmen leaders) attend the summits of the CIS, CSTO, and EurAsEC depending on own political and economic interests.

However, they do so mostly because of “inevitable necessity,” rather than because of the presence of good neighborliness and mutual understanding among them. The region is dominated by division, rather than real cooperation (“mine-border friendship” between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, “basic fears” between Tashkent and Bishkek, or “water confrontations” among all the countries of the region).

With all this going on, post-Soviet structures are of little help to the countries. The conflicts are solved mostly by means of bilateral negotiations, if the presidents are willing.

It is not surprising that all the countries of Central Asia are moving in the direction of enlightened Europe. They see prospects of the future only in cooperation with the EU and distant America (at least leaders of the countries send their children there).

However, “united Europeans” are going to keep Central Asian states at arm’s length despite their interest in the region’s resources. At the same time the EU itself can not continue to expand geographically, and “special partnership” cooperation with the post-Soviet states is unlikely to ease their “path to Europe.”

Nevertheless, with all their political and economic promiscuity, all the countries of Central Asia are attracted by promising cooperation with the EU and the US.

After all, bilateral cooperation of the Central Asian states can hardly be considered mutually beneficial and civilized.

Of course, all Central Asian countries are still tightly tied to Russia and its interests. But former common Soviet past as well as once common culture and presence of Russian language in the region (which is loosing its positions) do not determine today’s prospects for further development for the Central Asian states.

Meanwhile, the countries of Central Asia formed an implicit consensus on staying in the post-Soviet structures. No doubt they will continue their membership in CIS, CSTO and EurAsEC. And at the same time the leaders of the state will continue strengthening ties with the EU, NATO, and other Western institutions and associations, seeing future prospects for their states.