However, I could easily imagine more than ten factories making Kalashnikovs, especially from China (the primary export model in the world market is the “Type 56″, still being made today, 50 years after the first run). I could also imagine that with modern production techniques and machinery more than 250 weapons being produced per factory per day. And, as you said, the Chinese numbers are completely unavailable to us.

Incidentally, can you email me if you’re an FSO in Kabul?

“The Gun Digest Book of the AK & SKS” by Patrick Sweeney (published 2008) takes a look of the 100 million figure on pages 47-48 and argues that the math does not compute. Sweeney notes that if there were ten factories making 250 AKs each day for five days a week it would take 160 years to make 100 million rifles. He also looks at the U.S. production of M1 carbines during World War – 6.5 million – and calculates that even at this wartime production rate it would take 60 years to produce 100 million AK rifles. Sweeney goes on to state that the volume production of the AK occurred from 1947 to 1989, a total of 42 years. Sweeney does not include AK-74 rifles in his calculations but the AK-74 had a much shorter production run.

The 12th Edition of “Small Arms of the World” by Edward Clinton Edzell (published in 1983) gives an estimated production figure for the AK-47/AKM of 30-50 million. My figure of 30 million is one that I have to confess that I pulled out of my rear end. I estimated a production of 10 million for Russian military use, 10 million for Chinese military use, 5 million made by other producers (primarily Eastern Europe and North Korea), and 5 million specifically manufactured for the export market. The Chinese factor is what makes these figures no more than a wild-ass guess. I have not seen any figures for total AK production by China and I suspect that they do not exist outside of Chinese military channels. Nor have I seen any figure for Chinese production of SKS rifles, a near contemporary of the AK and an important second-line/militia weapon in Communist countries, including China. The only reference that I have seen about Chinese SKS rifles is mention of significant design difference that is found in SKS rifles with a serial number below 9 million compared to SKS rifles with a serial number above 9 million. (I’m not sure where the numbering started but it does imply a large production run of SKS rifles by China.)

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,652043,00.html

In the early 1990s, after the Soviets started selling off their weapons stockpile and bargain-basement rates, one could buy a Kalashnikov in Sierra Leone for about $10. That turned out well.

Hooray for the arms race!

And because of its cheap cost compared to American and German weapons. And because of the willingness of producing countries, especially the Chinese, to proliferate it. And because after the fall of the Soviet Union two decades ago, there were lots of spares to go around. And…well, not just because of its reliability. Single factors are usually not the answer.

I have official production counts for AR-15/M-16 type weapons. Kalashnikovs and derivatives are estimated to be higher, by both the Russians themselves as well as western observers. I don’t think I can believe a thirty million unit estimate. Do you have a source?

Whatever the actual production number, the AK is ubiquitous because of its unsurpassed reliability. It would be the perfect battle rifle if not for its atrocious ergonomics and mediocre caliber.