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	<title>Comments on: The Downside to Bribing/Co-opting/Reconciling Whomever</title>
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	<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2010/01/24/the-downside-to-bribingco-optingreconciling-whomeve/</link>
	<description>All Central Asia, All The Time</description>
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		<title>By: reader</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2010/01/24/the-downside-to-bribingco-optingreconciling-whomeve/comment-page-1/#comment-384116</link>
		<dc:creator>reader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jan 2010 18:39:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/?p=10276#comment-384116</guid>
		<description>Joshua,

The problem that you point out is basically a deep structural one within the US military. I&#039;m not calling SF dudes troglodytes, but most didn&#039;t join to develop a deeper appreciation of Rumi. So you will always have to reign in those personal/behavioral aspects (whether inborn or cultivated) that come with being a member of a very small, very militaristic culture. People can spin it all they like, but a warrior ethos is still a warrior ethos. This issue of channeling aggressiveness can also be found in law enforcement and will never eradicate. The only way to stop it would be to set up a psychological litmus test that discourages alpha males from joining the SF. Of course then you end up with a pretty poor SF. One of those ugly facts of life. Call it the sheepdog dilemma, and I think the presence of lots of &quot;contractors&quot;, to use the Orwellian term, exacerbates the problem. Wiser heads than myself have probably gone over and over about this, so I won&#039;t belabor the point. You must build the house with the tools you are given, correct? And listening to McChrystal talk about the populace is kind of sweet and quaint.

As far as bribes go, well it proves nobody has learned anything. Oh there is lot&#039;s of talk about doing away with the warlords. But it seems that the focus is on individuals, not on the system as a whole. This time, I&#039;m sure we&#039;ve learned the error of our ways and will bribe far more effectively. I&#039;m just wandering how this realpolitik fits into our earlier high-flying claims to remake the country? Where do all those little girls who want to go to school fit into this? At least you and others have made the point that the Shinwaris aren&#039;t paragons of enlightenment vis-a-vis gender. And as far as Afghan democracy goes, it will be interesting to see how many times that problematic phrase shows up in future speeches to the American electorate. Actually would make for a good drinking game, but I suspect unless you use old clips everybody might remain sober. And finally, if throwing money at a problem helps how come I haven&#039;t heard of a rash of recently born Pakistani babies named Dick Lugar or John Kerry?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joshua,</p>
<p>The problem that you point out is basically a deep structural one within the US military. I&#8217;m not calling SF dudes troglodytes, but most didn&#8217;t join to develop a deeper appreciation of Rumi. So you will always have to reign in those personal/behavioral aspects (whether inborn or cultivated) that come with being a member of a very small, very militaristic culture. People can spin it all they like, but a warrior ethos is still a warrior ethos. This issue of channeling aggressiveness can also be found in law enforcement and will never eradicate. The only way to stop it would be to set up a psychological litmus test that discourages alpha males from joining the SF. Of course then you end up with a pretty poor SF. One of those ugly facts of life. Call it the sheepdog dilemma, and I think the presence of lots of &#8220;contractors&#8221;, to use the Orwellian term, exacerbates the problem. Wiser heads than myself have probably gone over and over about this, so I won&#8217;t belabor the point. You must build the house with the tools you are given, correct? And listening to McChrystal talk about the populace is kind of sweet and quaint.</p>
<p>As far as bribes go, well it proves nobody has learned anything. Oh there is lot&#8217;s of talk about doing away with the warlords. But it seems that the focus is on individuals, not on the system as a whole. This time, I&#8217;m sure we&#8217;ve learned the error of our ways and will bribe far more effectively. I&#8217;m just wandering how this realpolitik fits into our earlier high-flying claims to remake the country? Where do all those little girls who want to go to school fit into this? At least you and others have made the point that the Shinwaris aren&#8217;t paragons of enlightenment vis-a-vis gender. And as far as Afghan democracy goes, it will be interesting to see how many times that problematic phrase shows up in future speeches to the American electorate. Actually would make for a good drinking game, but I suspect unless you use old clips everybody might remain sober. And finally, if throwing money at a problem helps how come I haven&#8217;t heard of a rash of recently born Pakistani babies named Dick Lugar or John Kerry?</p>
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		<title>By: Dafydd</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2010/01/24/the-downside-to-bribingco-optingreconciling-whomeve/comment-page-1/#comment-384025</link>
		<dc:creator>Dafydd</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jan 2010 10:42:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/?p=10276#comment-384025</guid>
		<description>Probably the most important factor in the decision you highlight (Taliban or ISAF as an employer) is who you think will win, rather than who pays the most. Let&#039;s face it, being an ISAF employee and facing a Sharia court after a Taliban victory is going to be bad news for your whole family. Likewise the prospect of a trip to Guantanamo if you join the Taliban and they lose will strike fear into the hearts of many Afghans.

My understanding of how extended families work would indicate that most would take the pragmatic route and try to get a foot in both camps. If you have seven sons, One Taliban, one ISAF terp, one studying at the mosque, four on the farm seems like a good strategy. If not sons, then cousins/nephews.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Probably the most important factor in the decision you highlight (Taliban or ISAF as an employer) is who you think will win, rather than who pays the most. Let&#8217;s face it, being an ISAF employee and facing a Sharia court after a Taliban victory is going to be bad news for your whole family. Likewise the prospect of a trip to Guantanamo if you join the Taliban and they lose will strike fear into the hearts of many Afghans.</p>
<p>My understanding of how extended families work would indicate that most would take the pragmatic route and try to get a foot in both camps. If you have seven sons, One Taliban, one ISAF terp, one studying at the mosque, four on the farm seems like a good strategy. If not sons, then cousins/nephews.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Foust</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2010/01/24/the-downside-to-bribingco-optingreconciling-whomeve/comment-page-1/#comment-384018</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua Foust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jan 2010 15:37:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/?p=10276#comment-384018</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s a fair comment. I&#039;d respond with this: if a local Afghan could choose to work for a community figure with ties to the insurgeny, or for the Coalition at an equivalent rate of pay (often ISAF tries to either match or just barely edge out Taliban wages), which is he most likely to choose?

That obviously depends a great deal on the individual. The point I&#039;m making here is that viewing even the low-level insurgents only in terms of money probably misses a great deal of the sociological backstory behind why they choose a given insurgent group over other means as an income source.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s a fair comment. I&#8217;d respond with this: if a local Afghan could choose to work for a community figure with ties to the insurgeny, or for the Coalition at an equivalent rate of pay (often ISAF tries to either match or just barely edge out Taliban wages), which is he most likely to choose?</p>
<p>That obviously depends a great deal on the individual. The point I&#8217;m making here is that viewing even the low-level insurgents only in terms of money probably misses a great deal of the sociological backstory behind why they choose a given insurgent group over other means as an income source.</p>
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		<title>By: Chris</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2010/01/24/the-downside-to-bribingco-optingreconciling-whomeve/comment-page-1/#comment-384017</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jan 2010 15:33:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/?p=10276#comment-384017</guid>
		<description>Josh, I gotta disagree with one of your statements, and it migh be that you are talking Strategic level guys and I&#039;m talking Tactical, but the lack of jobs is big factor in the insurgency at the lowest levels.  Many Afghan families have their small farm plots that, with a good harvest, will about feed their family.  If the harvest goes bad, they go hungry.  A lot of families will send one of the men to Pakistan or Iran to work and send back money.  From what I&#039;ve heard, an Afghan can make 4-5 times more in Iran or Pakistan than he can in Afghanistan, and that&#039;s assuming he can find a job in Afghanistan in the first place.  Now, along comes the local Taliban commander and tells the guy that, instead of going to another country where he&#039;ll be grossly mistreated, he will pay him $200 a month (twice what the ANP make) and he can work from home.  He gets a cell phone, maybe a motorcycle, and an AK, and every now and then, the commander calls him up and they zip off to ambush ANSF or ISAF units moving through the area.  This is why many of the &quot;ambush&#039;s&quot; are essentially harrassing fire from 300-800 meters away.  They empty a magazine in the general direction of the convoy, maybe launch a volley of RPG&#039;s the really ge their attention, then they leave.  The ISAF force proceeds to either high tail it out of there, a clear IO win for the insurgents, or they proceed to lay waste to the area that they think the fire came from with their heavy machine guns.  Of course, if they damage property or kill a civilian (or someone the Tinsurgents can claim was a civlilian), even returning fire like that is a big IO win for the insurgents.  
Anyhow, my point is that a lot of civilians work for the insurgents because there is actually very little risk (when was the last time an ISAF unit really un-assed their trucks and found the guys responsible), they get to live at home with their family, and frankly, the pay is good.
That&#039;s my .02

On the note of infiltrators, what about &quot;terps&quot;?  I&#039;ve had some interesting discussions with young Afghan teens that have suprisingly good English and some rather interesting views of ISAF.  After a little while though, they say, &quot;How can I become an interpreter for the Americans?&quot;  Maybe they just want a good paying job, but maybe in the past 8 years, the insurgents have realized the value of teaching some promising young men English.  Get one into a job with ISAF and you&#039;ve got some pretty good intel!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Josh, I gotta disagree with one of your statements, and it migh be that you are talking Strategic level guys and I&#8217;m talking Tactical, but the lack of jobs is big factor in the insurgency at the lowest levels.  Many Afghan families have their small farm plots that, with a good harvest, will about feed their family.  If the harvest goes bad, they go hungry.  A lot of families will send one of the men to Pakistan or Iran to work and send back money.  From what I&#8217;ve heard, an Afghan can make 4-5 times more in Iran or Pakistan than he can in Afghanistan, and that&#8217;s assuming he can find a job in Afghanistan in the first place.  Now, along comes the local Taliban commander and tells the guy that, instead of going to another country where he&#8217;ll be grossly mistreated, he will pay him $200 a month (twice what the ANP make) and he can work from home.  He gets a cell phone, maybe a motorcycle, and an AK, and every now and then, the commander calls him up and they zip off to ambush ANSF or ISAF units moving through the area.  This is why many of the &#8220;ambush&#8217;s&#8221; are essentially harrassing fire from 300-800 meters away.  They empty a magazine in the general direction of the convoy, maybe launch a volley of RPG&#8217;s the really ge their attention, then they leave.  The ISAF force proceeds to either high tail it out of there, a clear IO win for the insurgents, or they proceed to lay waste to the area that they think the fire came from with their heavy machine guns.  Of course, if they damage property or kill a civilian (or someone the Tinsurgents can claim was a civlilian), even returning fire like that is a big IO win for the insurgents.<br />
Anyhow, my point is that a lot of civilians work for the insurgents because there is actually very little risk (when was the last time an ISAF unit really un-assed their trucks and found the guys responsible), they get to live at home with their family, and frankly, the pay is good.<br />
That&#8217;s my .02</p>
<p>On the note of infiltrators, what about &#8220;terps&#8221;?  I&#8217;ve had some interesting discussions with young Afghan teens that have suprisingly good English and some rather interesting views of ISAF.  After a little while though, they say, &#8220;How can I become an interpreter for the Americans?&#8221;  Maybe they just want a good paying job, but maybe in the past 8 years, the insurgents have realized the value of teaching some promising young men English.  Get one into a job with ISAF and you&#8217;ve got some pretty good intel!</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Foust</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2010/01/24/the-downside-to-bribingco-optingreconciling-whomeve/comment-page-1/#comment-384016</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua Foust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jan 2010 13:04:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/?p=10276#comment-384016</guid>
		<description>Dunno about inside the decision-making apparatus. But I worry about it deeply. The Camp Chapman bomber was basically an infiltrator, and he was working with people who *should* have known better. So who knows.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dunno about inside the decision-making apparatus. But I worry about it deeply. The Camp Chapman bomber was basically an infiltrator, and he was working with people who *should* have known better. So who knows.</p>
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		<title>By: Dafydd</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2010/01/24/the-downside-to-bribingco-optingreconciling-whomeve/comment-page-1/#comment-384015</link>
		<dc:creator>Dafydd</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jan 2010 10:45:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/?p=10276#comment-384015</guid>
		<description>One of the great dangers of bribing insurgents to swap sides is it opens up the ANSF to infiltration.

Is nobody worrying about that?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the great dangers of bribing insurgents to swap sides is it opens up the ANSF to infiltration.</p>
<p>Is nobody worrying about that?</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Foust</title>
		<link>http://registan.net/index.php/2010/01/24/the-downside-to-bribingco-optingreconciling-whomeve/comment-page-1/#comment-384012</link>
		<dc:creator>Joshua Foust</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 21:36:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.registan.net/?p=10276#comment-384012</guid>
		<description>Forgot to add something in the post, and it&#039;s too annoying to rewrite it: the idea of &quot;integrating&quot; might be assuming too much, namely that there is a distinction between &quot;society&quot; and &quot;Taliban.&quot; In some (many?) places, it is entirely reasonable to consider &quot;society&quot; and &quot;Taliban&quot; to be analogous or even interchangeable concepts, in which case the idea of &quot;reconciliation&quot; is not only a bit inappropriate, it might be actually menacing to existing social structures.

There&#039;s obviously more to ponder in that concept, but I think it&#039;s important to keep in mind even while we look above at how unreliable the whole process has been and continues to be. It is probably a bad idea in the first place.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Forgot to add something in the post, and it&#8217;s too annoying to rewrite it: the idea of &#8220;integrating&#8221; might be assuming too much, namely that there is a distinction between &#8220;society&#8221; and &#8220;Taliban.&#8221; In some (many?) places, it is entirely reasonable to consider &#8220;society&#8221; and &#8220;Taliban&#8221; to be analogous or even interchangeable concepts, in which case the idea of &#8220;reconciliation&#8221; is not only a bit inappropriate, it might be actually menacing to existing social structures.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s obviously more to ponder in that concept, but I think it&#8217;s important to keep in mind even while we look above at how unreliable the whole process has been and continues to be. It is probably a bad idea in the first place.</p>
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