Karzai pledged to increase ANA, ANP and gendarme by 100,000 within the next 18 months, and called on what will be a force of 1,000′s of trainers, mercenaries and catering staff to build ‘it’, where ‘it’ must have an identifiable marketing ‘brand’ for US:ISAF.
Wackenhut’s catering contract alone is close to $100,000,000.

So CIA chosses it up to NYT’s. It doesn’t matter, it’s e-theatre,
and ‘New Hope’ is opening big on Durraniway, $130 billion big!

Take what they didn’t talk about. The ‘Big Take’ on foreign aid.

Karzai elicited agreements *without objection* from US:UK to increase Kabul’s take of foreign development aid to 50% from 20%. Karzai’s audits, which NYTs ignores, are only ~25% of the foreign aid Kabul gets now is executed into projects, the rest is lost in administrative overhead, bribes and rampant corruption.

CIA isn’t big on reporting actuals.

Do the math, follow the money. Increasing the ‘take’ to 50% on several $B’s a year in aid will drive execution performance down to 10%, and if you really grind through the ministries, works out to only about 50c per Afghan per year. 50c! The rest is slushing around in the general fund, which has severely contracted and clearly upside down, even though China MCC granted Karzai a $3.4B signing bonus for the Aynak copper reserve lease.

Where did that $3.4B go?! Why is Kabul now so bankrupt they have to slice off a half-share foreign aid ‘take’, especially with all the $10B’s sloshing on in ahead of the 100,000 man standup?

A lot of it disappeared in the Dubai repayment default, $B’s and $B’s that you really have to drill down even to hear whispers about. A lot of people and a lot of wealthy Afghans got taken.

We’re not told. We’re never told! We’re only presented with photo albums, ‘certified and legitimate’ standup comedy, and a blank look on the US auditor team’s face, when they were told in December that their Kabul deployment has been put on hold.

Durrani v. Ghilzai Smackdown!
$130,000,000,000 purse!
Iran, Iran, Iran, Iran!

One important factor that is either neglected or unknown to the so-called “expersts” on Afghanistan is that Ghiljay and Durrani (Abdali) are not the only two large tribal confederation. Zadran, Wazir, Mehsud and other similar tribes belong to the Karlan tribal confederation.

Furthermore, the opposition consists of Noorzai, Alizai and Ishaqzai tribes. Ironically they are sub-branches of the Durrani (Abdali) tribe.

These so-called “experts” have no idea what they are talking about. There are Ghiljay tribesmen in Karzai’s cabinet.

There is no tribal war going on. For some, it is a strictly ideological, for others it is all about self-enrichment.

Journalists and the so-called experts and analysts need to earn their money at the end of the day.