ISAF Reporting and the IED Numbers Shuffle

In looking at  ISAF’s data for the months of August and September, they summarize IED discoveries, etc., but only graph the numbers of actual IED explosions/attacks. This is a significant shift in their reporting, as they used to report all IED events, at least for the last three years or so. Additionally, some of the data that they are reporting is a little difficult to interpret. Below are some of the data points where things aren’t exactly readily understandable in ISAF’s reporting.

Differences in insurgent IED CIVCAS numbers

Both these reports would appear to be year to date (YTD) data, which makes the percentage difference between insurgent caused civilian casualties (CIVCAS) from the month of August to September a little striking.

• August YTD: 70% of all insurgent CIVCAS caused by IEDs
• September YTD: 55% of all insurgent CIVCAS caused by IEDs

This 15% reduction in casualties caused by IEDs is potentially due to more IED discoveries rather than detonations, but it could also mean that, due to the increased risk of IEDs, that fewer Afghans are traveling those areas where IED strikes are likely. Fewer possible targets would also result in fewer casualties. It’s impossible to draw any real conclusion as to the reason for the reduction from the data presented.

Percentage increase of IED attacks vs. total number of attacks

First, a look at the percentage increase of IED attacks YTD 2011 vs. 2010 for the same time period (January to August/September):

• August 2011: 5% increase in IED strikes from the previous year
• September 2011: 6% increase in IED strikes from the previous year

This is despite the fact that there were approximately 130 fewer IED attacks in the month of September vs. the month of August. The conclusion that has to be drawn here (in the absence of data showing otherwise) is that the number of attacks during September 2011 was actually higher than it was in 2010, causing a 1% increase in the number of attacks YTD. So while month-to-month this year’s numbers per month are decreasing, year-to-year there are still more IED attacks occurring.

Percentage of discovered IEDs

ISAF makes this assertion about the August data:

“The rate of IEDs that are found and cleared without detonation is 55 percent of total planted IEDs, an improvement over last year’s rate of 45 percent.”

Where this could be potentially confusing is that this sounds like we know how many IEDs have been planted in the country. If we know that, why aren’t we finding and clearing 100% of those IEDs without detonation? I realize that this is likely a short-sighted conclusion based on incomplete data, but it raises the potential for error in the analysis when the whole picture isn’t being reported.

This metric coupled with the previous figures on attacks is that, on the whole, while discoveries are increasing, so are attacks. More finds, more detonations. I’m still looking for the win, here.

ISAF caused CIVCAS

Since this is actually a lot more important than how ISAF reports IEDs, I contemplated putting it at the top, but I’m saving the truly depressing data for last. In August’s report, ISAF states:

“ISAF caused civilian casualties are 20 percent higher in 2011 (January through August) than during the same period in 2010.”

20. Percent. Higher. But then in September, this:

“ISAF-caused civilian casualties for the period January-September 2011 are unchanged from the comparable 2010 period despite a substantial increase in the number of troops.”

Which has to mean that ISAF managed to kill/wound fewer civilians in September of 2011 vs. September of 2010. Like fewer on an order of magnitude fewer. When ISAF goes from a 20% increase to a +/- 0% change in just 30 days for YTD comparison, that’s a substantial difference worth noting. And probably better for the Afghans. The good news is that per capita we’re managing to kill/wound fewer Afghan civilians. I’m not trying to be unfair: I know that ISAF  works very hard to keep civilian casualties to a minimum. This is a war, after all, and war is, if nothing else, really messy.

Reporting all IED events over the course of time is a strong indicator for the state of security in Afghanistan. Since more civilians than ISAF personnel are killed by IEDs, the fact that there more of them being planted and detonated in the country means that potentially the Afghan civilian population is actually in more danger, not less.

The impact to the population that exists for even the threat of an IED also has a signficant impact on the population as a whole. I know that if on my drive to my local Target I ran an increased risk of having my car blown up, I might actually travel that route less frequently. So even in the absence of actual attacks, just the threat of an IED is enough to change personal behaviors. Which, in Insurgentland, is a win. Even if they’re losing.

This post was written by...

Dan Smock – author of 15 posts on Registan.net.

Having spent time in Iraq as part of Uncle Sam's 9/11 World Tour as an infantry and civil affairs officer, Dan Smock is currently employed in Afghanistan as a civilian. His day job is way cooler than he deserves, and while he wants (desperately) to believe in the ISAF mission, he's pretty certain that all we're doing is lapping the drain. However, there are bright spots here, and he tries to find them when he can. He regularly blogs at It's Always Sunny in Kabul. You can reach him my email here.

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